Rub: The threat of penalties returns – Commerzbank

The probability of new and hard sanctions against Russia is increasing again: Western leaders are abandoning the hopes of significant diplomacy and returning to economic pressure, which had been the consensus strategy until the US president Donald Trump assumed the position. After initially trying his idea of ​​diplomacy, Trump has now described the negotiations of his administration with the Kremlin as ‘non -productive’ – now publicly supports the draft law of sanctions to Russia of the American senator Lindsey Graham, which proposes a 500% tariff to the countries that still import oil and Russian gas, says Commerzbank’s currency analyst Ghose

New EU sanctions on the way

“At the same time, those responsible for EU policies say they are preparing the most punitive sanctions package since 2022 – this marks a renew Expanded. “

“Of course, the eventual magnitude of the sanctions may not turn out to be what the current proposals suggest. For example, after months of painful tariff negotiations that were on the edge of the abyss, it is almost impossible to visualize that the US simply imposes a 500% tariff to China. Similarly, it is also likely that the implementation of the action measures takes time; It could, once again, be complex and partial – in fact, the effectiveness of the sanctions has diminished over time.

“If a new important source of uncertainty arose, a possible impact would be that the Central Bank (CBR) could have to delay its next rate reduction (widely anticipated for July 25). An increase in the price of gasoline at the national level is already raising some questions about the size of that reduction of rates. The exchange rate of the ruble, on the other hand, no longer reacts to the fundamental developments. But that is in situations routine.