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“Russia is planning a campaign of arrests and killings after the invasion of Ukraine”

“The United States obtained information through their secret services that the Russia It can target prominent political opponents, anti-corruption activists and Belarusian and Russian exiles living in Ukraine. For this he warned US President Joe Biden on Thursday 17/2 that the threat of a Russian invasion of the country remains “very high” and could take place in the next few days. “

Amy Mackinson, Robbie Grammer and Jack Detz are journalists covering Secret Policy, National Security and Foreign Policy. current situation and the tension in the red, for over a month, on the border of Russia and Ukraine.

“Four people familiar with US intelligence say Russia has compiled lists of politicians in Ukraine and other prominent figures who will be targeted for either arrest or assassination in the event of a Russian attack on Ukraine,” the report said.

“A fifth person, a US official who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the United States had downgraded threat information to specific groups inside Ukraine to share that information with Ukrainian government officials and other partners in the region. who are able to help.

“As we have seen in the past, we expect Russia to try to co-operate through intimidation and repression,” said a US official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Who will be targeted

Demonstration in Ukraine

According to Foreign Policy, “these acts, which in previous Russian operations included targeted killings, abductions / enforced disappearances, detentions and the use of torture, are likely to target those opposed to Russian actions, including Russian and Belarusian journalists, “, anti-corruption activists and vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and members of the LGBTQI + community,” the official said.

The Biden government has also been alarmed by how “official” these lists are, which appear to be aimed at anyone who might question Russia’s agenda. Five Eyes intelligence partners have also been monitoring Russian intelligence services, such as the FSB and the GRU, creating target lists for assassinations. An aide to Congress, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the moves were typical of Russian dogma, using the armed forces to occupy military targets, while special operatives shape the conflict as members of the secret services come to the country to get rid of evidence. of the opposition.

Ukrainians are preparing for war

The first official noted that dissidents from Russia and Belarus, where the violent repression of dissidents following mass protests in 2020 prompted many to seek refuge in neighboring Ukraine, faced particular challenges if they had to leave. Unlike Ukrainian citizens, they require a visa to travel to other European countries.

“Franck Viakorka, a senior adviser to Belarussian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsihanuskaya, said his group had issued specific recommendations to Belarusians living in Ukraine in the event of a Russian attack, but that they had not been informed of any threat to Belarus.”

The overcrowding of troops at the border

Soldiers in Ukraine

Journalists continue: “Russia has gathered about 150,000 troops near the border with Ukraine, ostensibly for routine military exercises with the military forces of neighboring Belarussian dictator Lukashenko. Russia has consistently denied any plans to invade Ukraine and has accused the West of fabricating the crisis.

The US ambassador to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, Michael Carpenter, said on Friday that the United States estimated that Russia had between 169,000 and 190,000 staff in and near Ukraine, a sharp increase from late January. The United States has asked Russia for clarification on its “large-scale and unusual military activities,” Carpenter said, including the exact location of the operations and the number and types of military units involved.

“While the United States and other NATO members are concerned about a possible invasion, Zelensky has downplayed the threat in recent weeks, insisting that an invasion is unlikely and that Washington is not helping to defuse the crisis by sounding the alarm.”

How could Russia invade?

Tension in Ukraine

“During a meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Thursday 17/2, Secretary of State Blinken outlined a detailed and disturbing picture of what a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be, starting with the creation of a false pretext for invasion and the Russian government convening extraordinary meetings to address the industrial crisis. “Some Western officials have pointed to Russia’s new allegations that Ukrainian military forces are committing a ‘genocide’ against the Russian-speaking population in Donbass as a possible false pretext – a claim they reject as completely false,” Foreign Policy said.

“Then the attack is planned to start,” Blinken said. “Russian missiles and bombs will fall all over Ukraine. Communications will be blocked. “Cyber-attacks will close key Ukrainian institutions.” After that, he said, Russian tanks and soldiers “will proceed to key targets that have already been identified and mapped into detailed plans. “We believe that these goals include… the capital of Ukraine, Kiev, a city of 2.8 million people.”

In his speech, Blinken briefly referred to US intelligence indicating that Russia would target political opponents by arrest or assassination. “We have information that Russia will target specific groups of Ukrainians.”

On Friday, February 18, Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine announced plans to evacuate civilians to Russia, accusing the Ukrainian government of plotting an attack in the region. “Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba has categorically denied that Kiev had any plans to launch an offensive operation in the region, describing the allegations as Russian misinformation.”

“Russia’s penetration into the local self-government structures of Ukraine is serious”

Crater from an explosion

A report released earlier this week by the British defense think tank Royal United Services Institute, based on interviews with several senior Ukrainian intelligence officials, claimed that Russian security services had extensive penetration into Ukraine’s local government structures and had begun mapping networks. individuals on whom one could rely for the administration of local governments in the event of a Russian invasion.

According to the report, the 9th Directorate of Russia’s FSB security service launched war game scenarios last December under the leadership of the Russian Air Force.

“Together they mapped out which locals would be supportive and started working on target lists that they would not do. “The intention was to establish command and control links between intelligence and military units to secure vital infrastructure, government buildings and to identify and eliminate Ukrainian leaders who would gather resistance,” the report said.

Details of Russia’s war game are not public. “They emerge from our interviews. However, the interviewees explained to us in detail how they knew about them. “They have the evidence,” said Jack Watling, a researcher at the institute, one of the authors of the report.

The warning to Ukraine and other allies about Russia’s possible plan to target political opponents is in line with Washington’s new playbook for rapidly declassifying sensitive information to publicize Moscow’s moves before they are made. The United States and other top NATO officials in Europe have repeatedly stated that the decision on whether to invade depends solely on the shoulders of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“According to senior US diplomats and former intelligence officials, the hope is that by shouting at Putin’s moves before he removes them and removing any elements of surprise, they can help prevent an invasion.”

Source: News Beast

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