Russia leaves Kherson: tactics or true withdrawal?

Russia says it is withdrawing. Kiev waits to see if this is true. The positions appear to be these after the Russians announced their decision to leave on public television with the highest defense leaders Kherson, the only capital of Ukraine that they managed to conquer in months of war and in the face of considerable losses. According to the US Chief of Staff, General Mark Milley, more than 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the invasion began.

The Moscow Ministry of Defense has announced the withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnipro River. It goes beyond the river that divides the country, losing 10% of the province of Kherson to the Russians who would have 80% left. NATO estimates that around 40,000 soldiers will have to cross the river with most of the bridges which should be destroyed. The minister Shoigu he explained that on the right bank the Russian forces risked isolation without the possibility of supplies and civilians were at risk from Ukrainian bombing.

Why leave the westernmost point conquered so far in a southern region just above the Crimea? The perplexity of the Ukrainians arises from here. Kiev fears it may be one tactical retreat, of a trap to attract the fighting to the East by continuing to strike with the artillery. There are also streets and neighborhoods around the city mined according to the Ukrainians who do not want to end up making a massacre attracted by the retreat. They fear the Trojan horse model. They also fear that the Russians have withdrawn to regroup at a time when they are succumbing.

On the Russian front there are those who speak of a difficult but obligatory choice like the Chechen Ramzan Kadyrovthere are those who wonder if the tactic is that of the scorched earth that led Napoleon to advance to Moscow only to be defeated by the general winter, there are those who wonder if territories that are Russian are really being given up by the September referendum .

Probably for Russia the move has a double usefulness: to show the internal public opinion that the government does not want to send young people to die unnecessarily and to show a kind of good will abroad, an opening that can be negotiated to negotiation. Foreign spokesperson Maria Zakharova explained: ” We have never refused to negotiate with Kiev and we are still ready, taking into account the emerging reality“.

For the Turkish president Erdogan, at the heart of one of the mediations, Russia’s decision is a very positive step. It is no coincidence that the US has made it known that it has always opened a channel of communication with Russia. The positions are distant, Kiev is not thinking of negotiations until the complete liberation of its territory, but it could be a glimmer.

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