Russia has revised its Ukraine war strategy to focus on trying to take control of the Donbas and other regions in eastern Ukraine with a target date of early May, according to several US officials familiar with the latest intelligence assessments of the U.S.
After more than a month of war, Russian ground forces have failed to maintain control of the areas where they have been fighting. Russian President Vladimir Putin is under pressure to demonstrate he can deliver a victory, and eastern Ukraine is where he is most likely to be able to do so quickly, officials say.
US intelligence intercepts suggest Putin is focused on May 9, Russia’s “Victory Day,” according to one of the officials.
May 9 is an important holiday on the Russian calendar, as the country marks the Nazi surrender in World War II with a massive parade of troops and weapons across Red Square in front of the Kremlin. Officials say Putin wants to celebrate a victory – of some sort – in his war that day.
But other officials note that even if there is a Russian celebration, a real victory may be farther away.
“Putin will hold a victory parade on May 9, regardless of the status of the war or the peace talks,” said a European defense official. “On the other hand: a victory parade with which troops and vehicles?”.
Still, US and European officials say any timeframes Moscow may set rhetorically do not change reality, as Russia appears to be bracing itself for the prospect of protracted conflict in Ukraine.
A European diplomat said that while the Kremlin speaks with optimism, Putin is preparing for a “long and drawn out Chechnya-style war, because he, to a certain extent, has nowhere else to go.”
There are several reasons behind the May deadline, officials say. As the winter freeze ends and the ground softens, it will become more difficult for heavy Russian ground units to maneuver, meaning it is vital that these forces spring into action as soon as possible, assesses US Intelligence.
Russian-backed fighter jets have also been in that region for years. In 2014, Russian separatist forces took control of territory in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Before Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin announced that he was recognizing two self-declared independent republics in the Donbas region.
Ukrainian authorities also publicly mentioned to the date. “Before May 9, Putin set the goal of a victory stop for this war,” Ukrainian Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said Thursday.
Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told Wolf Blitzer of CNN on Friday (1st) that Ukrainians believe they are facing a “very complex and difficult” situation, as Putin tries to meet a deadline.
“His ultimate goal is, was and will be to conquer Ukraine, but he failed. It failed due to a very strong determination of the Ukrainian military and a very strong unity of Ukraine and the Western world, and the sanctions that were imposed by the United States, G7 and the European Union,” Yatsenyuk said. “So now, as I see it, Putin has switched to Plan B. My opinion is that this Plan B has a deadline. The deadline is May 9.”
The US also assesses that Putin is now preparing for the first time to appoint a wartime commander-in-chief to try to achieve greater Russian successes, two US officials said. The US belief is that Putin is likely to name a general who has been to the South because it is a place where the Russians have succeeded in their goals.
THE CNN previously reported that there was no wartime commander in or near Ukraine, and units from different Russian military districts operating in different parts of Ukraine appear to be competing for resources rather than coordinating their efforts, according to two US defense officials. USA.
One of the signs that the Russians are regrouping is that their troops leaving the fighting areas north and east of Kiev appear to have moved north, in some cases to Belarus, for resupply.
The US says it believes this will put them in a position to move to the Southeast in the Donbas region. One objective of the Russian battlefield in Donbas would be to cut off Ukrainian troops already there so they cannot return to defensive positions or join other Ukrainian forces, officials say.
But a battlefield shift to the East on the ground can do little to stop the continued Russian air strikes by missiles and long-range aircraft throughout the rest of Ukraine, especially the south.
Source: CNN Brasil
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