Russia-Ukraine War: Peace or Escalation?

This article on the Russia-Ukraine war is published in issue 37 of Vanity Fair on newsstands until September 10, 2024.

Now that a month has passed since its beginning, it is time to take stock: does the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk, that is, the counter-invasion of Russia by Kiev’s army, bring the end of the war closer or does it increase the probability of an escalation, even a nuclear one?

On August 6, Ukraine launched the most surprising military operation since the beginning of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022: sent his troops to conquer Russian territory across the border and, within a week, claimed to have occupied a thousand square kilometers. For Russia, and in particular for Vladimir Putin’s credibility, it was a significant blow: not only had the Russian army failed in the spring offensive in Kharkiv, one of the large Ukrainian cities targeted, but now it found itself losing entire villages, unable to guarantee the safety of Russian citizens, and having to decide whether to use its army to defend itself or advance into Donbass, the Ukrainian region it began annexing two years ago. Moscow responded with missile and drone strikes, but failed to retake Kursk.

The Ukrainian government said it had captured Kursk to start negotiations: it is also the only way to uphold the legitimacy of the counter-invasion (a form of self-defense commensurate with an existential threat), since the permanent annexation of territories of sovereign states is always illegal.
Even Putin, before the summer, had said he was ready to negotiate at any time, but at that stage Ukraine seemed doomed: with Donald Trump close to the presidency, Europe divided over aid and ammunition running out.

Now, Kiev and Moscow could negotiate from more equal positions: andBoth governments are incapable of permanently guaranteeing the safety of their citizens and territorial integrity. A symmetry that could facilitate negotiations, with Donbass and Kursk to be used as hostages to be exchanged. But it is not that simple.

The secret negotiations in Istanbul in March 2022 ran aground, even before they got to the point of talking about territory, on the issue of security clauses. Ukraine can reach a truce only if Western partners commit to intervene in its defense in the event of a Russian threatbut the United States and NATO countries do not want an automatic mechanism that forces them into a direct war with Moscow. And Moscow does not want a defense guarantee that would be equivalent to Ukraine’s entry into NATO.

As absurd as it may seem, at the time Putin was demanding veto power over Western support for Ukraine in the event of a Russian attack. Until the US presidential elections in November and the management of the result, it is unrealistic to think about diplomatic developments: both Ukraine and Russia are waiting to see whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win. and whether the latter, in the event of defeat, will attempt a new coup d’état. A defeat of the Republicans and the exit from politics of Trump and Trumpians could create the opportunity for a new diplomatic beginning. But it is not the most likely scenario.

Article about the Russia-Ukraine war.

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