Russia and Ukraine They say to want to discuss the peace. Delegations from both countries gather on Thursday (15) In Türkiye for high level conversations. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be present. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, no.
Which they are you possible terms of one agreement and which you danger involved?
Security warranty
THE Ukraine, what suffered one invasion in wide scale in 2022 and it saw the Russia attach the Crimea in 2014, state what it needs of warranties of security of large Powers – mainly of the States United.
THE country he wants more of what the Memo of Budapest of 1994, node which Russia, USA and Kingdom United agreed in respect the sovereignty from the Ukraine and if abate of use from the strength against she. Second that agreement, you signatories promised just resort to the Advice of Security from the UN case the Ukraine were attacked.
THE problem, second sources involved in the discussions, and what one guarantee of security with strength real it could drag ooscanning to one future war with the Russia – while one guarantee without strength would leave the Ukraine vulnerable.
Second proposals preliminary of one possible agreement of peace views for the Reuters, diplomats spoke on one “guarantee of security robust ”, what it could include something similar to the Article 5 of treated from the OTAN. THE Article 5 compromise you allies the if defend mutually in case of Attack – although the Ukraine no it is member from the alliance.
As part of one agreement failed in 2022, the Ukraine it would have accepted one neutrality permanent in replacement of warranties of security of the five members permanent of Advice of Security from the UN – Kingdom United, China, France, Russia and States United – and of others countries, including Belarus, Canada, Germany, Israel, Poland and Türkiye, of agreement with one sketch visa for the Reuters.
But authorities in Kiev They say what to accept the neutrality from the Ukraine and one line red what no intend cross.
Ukraine as a member of NATO
Russia has repeatedly claimed that the possible adhesion of Ukraine to NATO was one of the causes of the war. Moscow considers this unacceptable and argues that Ukraine should be neutral – without foreign bases. Zelensky said it is not up to Moscow to decide the alliances of Ukraine.
At the 2008 Bucharest Summit, NATO leaders agreed that Ukraine and Georgia once become members. In 2019, Ukraine altered its constitution, committed to the path of full adherence to NATO and the European Union.
US envoy, General Keith Kellogg, said Ukraine’s adhesion to NATO is “out of the question.” President Donald Trump stated that US support for Ukraine’s adhesion to the Military Alliance was one of the causes of the war.
In 2022, Ukraine and Russia discussed permanent neutrality.
Russia wanted limitations in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to a copy of a possible agreement revised by Reuters. Ukraine firmly opposed the idea of restrictions on the size and capabilities of its armed forces.
Russia has stated that it has no objections to the search for Ukraine for adherence to the European Union, although some members of the bloc may oppose Kiev’s candidacy.
Territory
Moscow controls about one fifth from Ukraine and states that the territory is now part of Russia officially, a position that most countries do not accept.
Russia attached to Crimea in 2014. Russian forces control almost the entire Luhansk region and more than 70% of Donetsk, Zaprizehzia and Kherson regions, according to Russian estimates. Russia also controls a small part of the Kharkiv region.
In the most detailed proposals from Putin for Peace, presented in June 2024, he stated that Ukraine would have to withdraw completely from these regions – including areas that are currently not under Russian control.
According to a Peace Plan Sketch prepared by the Trump administration, the US would legally recognize Russian control over Crimea and recognize Russian control in fact About Luhansk and parts of Zaporizehzia, Donetsk and Kherson.
Ukraine would recover territory in the Kharkiv region, while the US would control and administer the Zaporizehzia nuclear plant, which is currently under Russian control.
Kiev states that legally recognizing Russian sovereignty about the occupied areas is out of the question and would violate the Ukrainian Constitution, but that territorial issues could be discussed in negotiations as soon as a ceasefire was established.
“The main problems here are the regions, the nuclear power plant, such as Ukrainians will be able to use the Dnieper River and have access to the ocean,” Trump envoy Steve Witkoff told Breitbart News last week.
Sanction
Russia wants western sanctions to be raised, but is skeptical about the possibility of this to occur soon.
Even though the US raises sanctions, sanctions from the European Union and other Western countries – such as those imposed by Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada and Japan – may remain for years.
Ukraine wants sanctions to remain in force.
Reuters said the US government is studying ways to relieve sanctions on Russia’s energy sector as part of a broader plan to allow Washington to provide fast relief if Moscow agrees to end the war in Ukraine.
Oil and gas
Trump suggested that Vladimir Putin, who leads the world’s second largest oil exporter, could be more inclined to solve the war in Ukraine after a recent drop in oil prices, although Kremlin said national interests are more important than oil prices.
Still, some diplomats have speculated that the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia would be looking for lower prices for oil as part of a larger agreement involving issues from the Middle East to Ukraine.
Earlier this month, Reuters reported that Washington and Moscow officials had discussions about the US help revitalize Russian gas sales to Europe.
Ceasefire
The European powers and Ukraine require Russia to accept a ceasefire before negotiations, but Moscow states that ceasefire will only be effective after verification questions are resolved. Kiev says Moscow is playing to gain time.
Reconstruction of Ukraine
The reconstruction of Ukraine will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, and European powers want to use part of the frozen Russian sovereign assets in the West to help Kiev. Russia says this is unacceptable.
Russia could agree to use $ 300 billion of frozen sovereign assets in Europe for reconstruction in Ukraine, but will insist that part of the money is spent in the country controlled by Moscow forces, Reuters said in February.
Ukraine has said it wants all $ 300 billion of retained assets to be used in postwar reconstruction.
This content was originally published in Russia x Ukraine: scenarios and risks of a possible peace agreement on CNN Brazil.
Source: CNN Brasil
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