Russian analyst: Putin holds the keys to Erdogan’s re-election

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s continued political and financial support is essential for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to win next year’s election, a top Russian analyst said on Monday, reflecting on a meeting between them in Sochi, Russia that has raised alarm in capitals of the West.

Erdogan is struggling with economic instability in his country, where inflation has reached 79.6% and the lira is weakening against foreign currencies. The problems have hurt his popularity among Turkish voters, meaning he could lose both the parliamentary and presidential elections, which must be held by next June under current law.

During the four-hour meeting on Friday, Erdogan agreed with Putin to pay for Russian gas partly in rubles, increase the volume of trade between the two countries and allow Russian companies to set up operations in free trade zones of Turkey. He said on Saturday that five Turkish banks have adopted the Russian Mir payment system. The two leaders also agreed to cooperate in the fight against terrorism in Syria and in the fields of transport, agriculture, finance and construction industries.

Erdogan must continue to help Putin or he could be ousted next year, said Igor Korochenko, a Russian defense expert. “We are not diminishing the role of the Turkish people in terms of the power in their choice,” Korochenko told Rossiya-1, according to Britain’s Daily Express newspaper. “We’re not discounting Erdogan’s role in this either, but in the modern world, a powerful, self-sufficient power like Russia influences elections held in other nations in favor of certain politicians.”

Tim Ash, senior emerging market strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London and a veteran Turkey watcher, said on Twitter on Sunday that the talks with Putin and their outcome were “not good” for Turkey. “Erdogan … seems to be doing everything to boost trade with Russia, help Russia deal with sanctions and benefit from it at the same time,” Ash said.

Erdogan has refused to sanction Putin’s government or Russian businessmen over the war in Ukraine and has claimed a leading role in brokering a deal between Moscow and Kiev to resume Ukrainian grain exports. He says Russian oligarchs are welcome in Turkey as tourists or investors.

While Western governments have praised Turkey for brokering the grain deal, they are very concerned about deepening economic and trade ties with Russia, and warn that Ankara could be hit with punitive retaliation if it helps Russia avoid sanctions. , the Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing six Western officials.

The countries could call on their companies and financial institutions to pull out of Turkey if Erdogan goes ahead with the plans he outlined after meeting Putin, a senior Western official said.

Some individual EU member states could take action, an official said. “For example, they could ask for restrictions on trade financing or ask the big financial companies to reduce funding to Turkish companies… I wouldn’t rule out any negative actions [αν] Turkey is getting very close to Russia.”

The United States, which has already sanctioned Turkey for buying Russian missiles in 2019, has repeatedly warned countries that “secondary sanctions” could be imposed if they help Russia avoid punitive measures. US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo met in Turkey in June with government officials and bankers to warn them against becoming a conduit for illicit Russian money.

Korochenko said next year’s election was the only thought on Erdogan’s mind and Putin used that to his advantage.

“Let’s not forget the most important thing – the 2023 elections,” he said. “Without Russia’s support, without Putin’s support, the keys to Erdogan’s presidency are in the hands of the Russian leader, if we are honest… That’s why friendship with Russia and personal contacts between Putin and Erdogan are the advantages that will allow Turkish voters to vote for Erdogan next year.”