Russian documents come to light: Putin planned to invade Ukraine many months earlier

By Sebastien Roblin

The Eastern Operational Group of the Ukrainian army published on its Facebook page plans to invade Ukraine, which is said to have been confiscated by the 810th Marine Brigade of Russia.

The documents, bearing a stamp dated 18 January 2022, set out call signals and radio frequencies for military operations during the period 20 February – 6 March, and include maps detailing the plan to occupy Melitopolis. The amphibious ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet did set sail from the port on February 20, but the military operations began on February 24.

Melitopolis, with a population of about 150,000, was captured shortly afterwards by Russian troops advancing from the Crimean peninsula, making any amphibious amphibious operation unnecessary. However, fighting continues in the city and residents are actively resisting Russian occupation.

The Eastern Operational Group of the Ukrainian Army states in its post:

“Thanks to the successful actions of a unit of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian occupiers are not only losing their equipment and manpower, but in their panic they are leaving behind secret documents.

On the first page of the confiscated documents, the Command of the Olmos Artillery of the 1st Regular Battalion of the 810th Marine Fleet Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet is mentioned as the recipient. This is an emergency formation on the field consisting of battalions from a battle battalion with additional fire support means.

A note in black ink indicates that the documents were approved on January 18, 2022, although the stamp is too faint in the image to be verified.

Another document, however, bears a note dated January 26, 2022 in the middle of the page to the right.

The next page defines call signals and radio frequencies for communication between command staffs as well as battalion and squadron units for the period February 20 – March 6. These would change daily to prevent enemies from accessing signal information.

Of course, the daily change of call signals for a period of two weeks does not necessarily confirm that, when the documents were sealed, military operations had already been planned for the same period. Nor does the March 6 deadline necessarily mean that any military operations would be completed by then – it may simply be the design that will be implemented during the time in question.

However, a map of Melitopolis attached to the documents seems less ambiguous. Regular symbols indicating the deployment of military forces and amphibious amphibious operations are displayed on the map.

Elena Roshchina of the Ukrainian Pravda points out that the regular symbols indicate that the battalion was to disembark from the Alligator Orsk-class tanker ship near the village of Stepanovka-1 and join the 177th Marine Regiment, a unit normally part of the Russian of the Caspian, who moved to the Black Sea a month – and more – before the start of the war.

Both the regular symbols and the text appear to refer to “Air Assault” or “Assault Companies”. This could indicate that the 1st Battalion Regular Group (an adhoc field unit) is built around the 542nd Marine Infantry Assault Battalion of the 810th Brigade. Unlike the other two brigades of the brigade, the 542nd is based on helicopters and not amphibious armored vehicles for the development of soldiers.

The authenticity of the documents published on Facebook can not be confirmed. Supposedly, they could have been fabricated by Ukrainians to support their argument that Vladimir Putin was systematically lying when he said he had no intention of invading Ukraine.

However, the documents contain mostly commonplace details and do not look like the “stubborn” evidence that someone would fabricate – by falsifying documents – to accuse Putin. After all, the proof that Putin was lying about his intentions is the bombing itself.

On the other hand, if the documents were “planted” by the Russians to deceive, as some claim, we do not see how they helped in the operation to occupy Melitopolis, in the first days of the war in Ukraine.

Therefore, although the forgery version can not be rejected, it is very likely that the confiscated Russian documents are exactly what they appear to be.

In this case, they strengthen the assessments of the analysts who monitored the military development of Russia and said – for a long time – that the plan for the Russian invasion of Ukraine was drawn up – at least as a possibility – months before its implementation and that the angry Putin’s assurances to world leaders – including Biden and Macron – that he was not thinking of attacking the neighboring country were nothing more than a blatant lie.

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