untitled design

Russian economy won’t return to pre-war levels until 2030, rating agency predicts

Russia’s economy is unlikely to return to pre-war levels before the end of this decade, as the war in Ukraine and tighter sanctions worsen long-standing economic shortcomings, Scope Ratings said in a report seen by Reuters on Friday. .

By the end of 2023, gross domestic product (GDP) will be about 8% below production in 2021, according to the forecast by the credit rating watchdog.

The Russian economy grew by 4.7% in 2021, according to the federal statistics service Rosstat. After 2023, potential growth will decline to 1.0-1.5% a year from the 1.5-2.0% achieved before the war, the agency said.

“The Russian government, helped by the Bank of Russia, used windfall export earnings to mitigate the immediate domestic economic impact of the Ukraine war and sanctions, but the long-term outlook has worsened,” said Scope analyst Levon Kameryan.

Accelerating capital outflows, limited access to Western technology and negative demographic trends will continue to hamper growth and exacerbate the effects of war and sanctions in the absence of any significant economic restructuring, according to the report.

About four times as much private capital — $64.2 billion — came out of Russia in the first quarter of 2022 alone compared to the same quarter last year, the report said.

The Scope report predicts that the private sector will withdraw more capital from Russia this year than the $152 billion it took in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea.

Source: CNN Brasil

You may also like

Get the latest

Stay Informed: Get the Latest Updates and Insights

 

Most popular