Russian fighter jets can bomb Ukraine without even approaching it

By David Ax

The Russian air force has the third largest bomber fleet in the world after the Chinese and American.

Many of Russia’s 137 Tu-22M3 Backfire, Tu-95 Bear and Tu-160 Blackjack bombers are expected to play a key role in the event that Vladimir Putin orders his troops to attack Ukraine.

Do not expect the Ukrainian army to be able to react. After upgrades in recent years, Russian bombers can now do what the Americans have been able to do for a long time: hit targets on land with accuracy of hundreds or thousands of miles away – while staying within safe distance of enemy air defenses.

In the 1960s and 1970s, the development of high-precision guidance systems as well as small efficient engines resulted in the radical modernization of the United States Air Force (USAF), which acquired the operational capability to deliver long-range non-nuclear strikes.

In the 1960s, the USAF acquired long-range drones with inertial guidance systems. He replaced the camera of the unmanned aircraft with explosive warheads and here it is: the “primitive” Cruise rocket.

In 1986, the US Air Force began equipping B-52 bombers with a non-nuclear version of the 1,500-mile AGM-86 Cruise Missile Missile. For 33 years, until new weapons systems were introduced, the AGM-86 was the missile used primarily by the USAF – and the reason American bombers did not have to approach the enemy to strike it.

For generations, the Russian Air Force has focused on renewing its anti-ship missiles; instead, it has been slow to upgrade its ground operations capabilities remotely. The Russians began equipping their bombers with non-nuclear Cruise missiles in the mid-2000s. It was in 2015 that Russian Tu-160s first launched the Kh-101 Cruise (against rebel forces in Syria).

The Kh-101 – about 7.5 meters long, weighs 2.5 tons and has a head of 400 kilograms – can travel about 3,000 miles, combining inertial, ground and satellite guidance to hit with the precision of the first generation American Cruise. Many missiles will fall within a few tens of meters of their targets.

Today, the Blackjacks and the Bears are carrying Kh-101 missiles and launching them against rebels in Syria.

Backfires have been equipped with gravity bombs only once during offshore operations. In recent years, the leaders of the Russian Air Force have proposed equipping the Backfires with the new Kinzhal supersonic missile, which today carries only a few degrees of MiG-31 fighters.

The Russian Air Force should have at least 76 Bear and Blackjack bombers capable of launching Kh-101 missiles on Ukrainian territory without even approaching the border with the neighboring country. “Even with the Kh-101, a Blackjack could remain deep in Russian airspace and hit any target in Europe,” explains Douglas Barrie, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

“A ‘flight racing’ pattern aircraft over Engels air base in central Russia, where the Tu-160s are part of the 121st Heavy Bomber Squadron, puts most of Europe – except southwestern Spain – within range.” adds Barrie.

“Apart from reducing the risks when the operation is carried out through national airspace, keeping the fighters close to a base allows for quick refueling and re-attack,” Barrie concludes.

Imagine dozens of bombers taking off from their airports in the Russian hinterland, climbing to the right height, launching the Kh-101 and landing immediately, refueling and striking again. The only limitations on their ability to strike Ukraine would be the information – that is, to identify the real targets – and the number of missiles in their arsenal.

Ukraine can do little to stop the Russian bombing. The Russian air force expelled the Ukrainian Air Force from the Russian-controlled Donbass in 2015. If Russia implements a sensible plan, the chances of Ukrainian fighters intercepting the Bears and Blackjacks before launching their missiles are almost certain.

Yes, it is theoretically possible to shoot down cruise missiles as they move toward their target. But it is difficult. In the Cruise bombings that have been launched from time to time by the Americans, most of the missiles “passed”.

This means that the only viable reaction is passive defense. To survive a rocket attack, Ukrainians must move when they can – and when they can not, be fortified.

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