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Russian roulette by Erdogan – It is suffocating Greece and Cyprus

Ankara has opened many open fronts and is taking important – as they are characterized by others – geostrategic steps, dangerously raising the bar, largely shaping a war scenario. The climate created by occupying Turkey is gradually leading either by mistake or because it will seek it or because it has raised the bar so high that it can not back down, in a small-scale conflict. An episode, which, however, may develop out of control.

The Erdogan regime is moving in various fields, using military power as a key tool and promoting the role of “bridge builder”. In this game of redistribution of power, the occupying power is trying to put pressure on Greece and Cyprus.

In Cyprus, according to the data, it is expected to move at two levels: in the Cypriot EEZ and in Famagusta. In view of the festivals they organize every year for the anniversaries of the invasion, Recep Tayyip Erdogan may also be in the occupied territories for announcements. As for the enclosed area of ​​occupied Famagusta, Ankara follows a salami-making tactic.

The opening of the area is gradual, while it obviously aims at phases (first and second at the moment) in order for the enclosed to operate and be colonized. This equation includes the sale of Greek Cypriot property and the creation of a Las Vegas model. The implementation of such a plan will politically neutralize any territorial disputes and will bury the Cyprus issue.

Regarding the next moves in the Cypriot EEZ, the information states that the descent of the new drilling rig (fourth in number), which they baptized (Sultan) Abdulhamid, is expected to take place in July. This, however, will depend on other developments on other fronts. It is estimated, based on the available information, that the drilling rig will move to the offshore block 6. In the same one where the ENI-TOTAL consortium licensed by the Republic of Cyprus operates.

Obviously, the Turkish drilling rig will not “drill” in the same area, but in another of the same sea plot. It is noted in this regard that, as Erdogan said, “Abdulhamid” is located in the port of Tasuzdu in Mersin and the technical preparations are being made for the first drilling.

In Nicosia, the movements and intentions of occupying Turkey are being closely monitored. At the political level, managers have locked themselves in a limited horizon of action. Having put on the shelf any other options, they insist on Confidence Building Measures, which I say in passing, have been rejected by the Turkish side. Apart from the fact that the package is considered obsolete, with high risk regulations (to become the final solution), the management of Nicosia offers the opportunity to the Turks to announce that they will also submit their own MOE, based on the logic of “sovereign equality”. “and the” equal international regime “.

In all of this, especially on issues related to the Turkish provocations, the United Nations, which deals with “low policy” issues and recycles prescriptions for maintaining the status quo, is vocally absent.

As far as Greece is concerned, Turkey maintains the climate of tension in the Aegean. For the first time, perhaps, after many years in Athens, they are worried about the possibility of a hot episode, which will be caused by a plan or an accident. The information states that the Turks may license the state company TRAO for investigations between Rhodes and Crete, provoking the reaction of Athens, which can not leave unanswered a clear question of Greek sovereignty. Another thing, which seems to be in the Turkish plans, is to stop a Greek naval vessel from approaching an island or to reach the extreme scenario of occupying an island. All these scenarios lead to escalation of tension and conflict.

Greece is on alert, in a state of full readiness, as reported competently in Athens, with the aim of deterrence.

The worrying thing, of course, is that there are no channels of communication. Ankara is alone with the Americans in this phase, which maintains channels and chats. Can the Americans prevent Erdogan from making an extreme move? Will the Turkish President want anything in return?

Updated sources, however, described the situation as fluid and worrying. Attention is focused on Erdogan’s palace where decisions are being made and the next moves are expected.

Syria – Ukraine

In Ankara, at this stage, the focus is primarily on two areas of which he believes will change a lot in the broader strategic plans. That of Syria, where it is currently waiting for the green light from the US and Russia to advance its forces. The plan exists, it will be implemented but Ankara prefers to have the consent of these two international players.

The second field is Ukrainian. Ankara is constantly looking for a role as it believes that through it it will become a regional power, a strong player, maintaining relations with Moscow but also holding a passport to the West. Finally, it is trying to mediate the issue of grain, which is blocked in Ukrainian ports, in order to ensure safe routes, as proposed by the UN.

At the same time, information indicates that the occupying force moved between Kiev and Moscow for the exit of civilians from Mariupol and the delivery of weapons. And this was achieved as Ankara accepted to mediate from the conflicting sides and through its come-and-go method, it seems that there was a result.

It is obvious that Ankara is moving on a tightrope. Erdogan is in a hurry to have results in the run-up to the 2023 elections. He wants to implement strategic expansion plans and use them in the run-up to the elections. What is interesting, however, is that what they are promoting has not been “invented” in the run-up to the elections, but they are proceeding with the implementation of long-term political goals.

Source: philenews.com

Source: Capital

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