Russia does not have a sufficient military contingent to occupy Ukrainian territory. This is the assessment of the professor at the Instituto de Estudos Estratégicos at the Universidade Federal Fluminense and researcher at Harvard, Vitélio Brustolin.
In an interview with CNNthe expert stated that the conflict is an “unlimited war”: “It has three phases: destruction of the opponent’s armed forces, occupation of territory and imposition of civil obedience.”
He highlighted that the guerrilla tactics adopted by the Ukrainians have made it difficult to take over the military forces. “There is a point that to occupy Ukrainian territory, the Russians do not have enough manpower.”
“There are calculations that indicate that, for an effective occupation, it is necessary to calculate 20 soldiers for every thousand inhabitants. That would mean a force of more than 800,000 soldiers, numbers are unthinkable and highly unlikely.”
In addition, Vitélio stressed that “it is very costly to put so many people on the battlefield.”
At the same time, the researcher argues that “if the Russians wanted to, they could bomb the entire Ukraine, but it would be a bloodbath and it would mean the beginning of the Third World War, as the world would react. So Russia has taken some precautions.”
For the professor, “it is unlikely” that the Ukrainians will surrender, as they have international support and, led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, have resisted the Russians.
Photos – See images of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Source: CNN Brasil
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