Sales of durable goods are 9.13% below pre-pandemic level, says FGV

Sales of durable goods ended the second quarter 9.13% below the level recorded in February 2020, before the pandemic, according to disaggregated data from the GDP Monitor of Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV).

The rise in interest rates, inflationary pressure and high levels of indebtedness and delinquency of families are among the factors that explain the decline in the sector.

“You have a very strong influence, which is inflation, and another very strong influence, which is the interest rate. The interest rate is very high, and you buy durable goods financed. In addition, the price has gone up”, says Claudio Considera, coordinator of the National Accounts Center at the Brazilian Institute of Economics at FGV (Ibre/FGV).

War

Claudio Considera recalls that the Brazilian consumer durables industry was hampered by the scarcity and price of inputs, by logistical problems caused by the pandemic and, later, by the war in Ukraine.

The lack of microchips came to paralyze the production line of car makers and electronics manufacturers.

The consumption of industrial goods in Brazil, which considers both domestic and imported products, accumulated a drop of 3.1% from January to June, compared to the same period last year, according to calculations by the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea). ).

Among the categories of use, the result of durable consumer goods was the most negative in the period, with a decrease of 8.0% in the first half, pointed out the Ipea Indicator of Apparent Consumption of Industrial Goods.

“The durable goods production line is starting to recover, but the interest rate remains high, and will continue to increase. So the consumption of these goods will still fall for a period”, predicted the researcher, who also adds that, in the first year of the pandemic, there was an increase in the acquisition of durable goods by people who managed to make forced savings during the period of social distancing.

“Now the priority is the consumption of services, because it’s something that people haven’t done for a long time”, added Considera.

The latest release of the Consumer Survey, verified by Ibre/FGV, corroborates the researcher’s analysis.

The item that measures consumer impetus to purchase durable goods dropped 2.9 points in July compared to June, to 67.7 points, still below pre-pandemic levels.

Retail price rises outpaced inflation

Within a year, consumer durables were 12.02% more expensive at the factory.

The most relevant price increases – among the increases registered in the 12 months ending in June – were those of automobiles, motorcycles, refrigerators, washing machines, wooden furniture, stoves and small appliances, among others, according to the Producer Price Index ( IPP), from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), which calculates industrial inflation.

On the other hand, retail inflation, measured by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), also from the IBGE, shows that there were significant transfers to consumers in these same items: furniture (increase of 23.40% in the 12 months ended in July), home appliances and equipment (20.61%), new automobiles (17.50%), refrigerator (23.85%), washing machine (18.77%), stove (22.23%) and motorcycle (19, 34%).

The information is from the newspaper. The State of São Paulo.