New satellite images released by a US-based tech company appear to show that Russia’s military has advanced in several locations across Belarus, a move likely to worry Ukraine and NATO amid fears that the Kremlin is planning a war. incursion into Ukrainian territory.
The developments are likely linked to joint exercises between Russian and Belarusian forces due to begin on Thursday. However, other photographs show camps being established near the Ukrainian border, hundreds of kilometers from where the exercises are taking place.
Russia has repeatedly denied that it plans to attack Ukraine, despite Moscow’s massive troop buildup in the region.
The Kremlin is believed to have gathered 70% of the military personnel and weapons on Ukraine’s borders that Russia would need for a full-scale invasion, according to two US officials familiar with Washington’s latest intelligence estimates.
However, it is unclear how long Russian forces would take to build up further, or if they would need full capability to invade.
Maxar’s footage – taken on Saturday – is consistent with recently posted social media videos showing Russian forces moving through Belarus and creating field camps 32 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Some of the images show Belarus’ Luninets airfield, where Russian fighter jets were deployed before the exercises, dubbed Union Resolve 2022. The photographs show Russian S-400 air defense systems and Su-25 attack aircraft at the airfield. The Russian Defense Ministry released a video on Saturday of the planes arriving at Luninets.
One of the S-400 battalions traveled from Khabarovsk in the Russian Far East, a journey of more than 5,600 miles (9,000 kilometers), according to Zvezda, a Russian Defense Ministry publication.
Other photographs by Maxar show Russian forces settling some distance away from where the exercises are planned – including in Rechitsa, a Belarusian town about 270 kilometers east of Luninets, close to where the borders of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine meet.
The force assembled there includes tanks, howitzers and infantry fighting vehicles.
The images show that for the first time several tent camps were created in Rechitsa. This development and recent images of the area suggest a growing Russian presence there. Videos posted on social media show Russian troops entertaining local people in Rechitsa, with music and demonstrations at an event called Two Nations, One History, One People.
Several other images from Maxar show a growing Russian presence southwest of Rechitsa and 25 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, in rural areas near the city of Yelsk.
Maxar is evaluating the deployment near Yelsk to include short-range Iskander ballistic missiles, which have a range of around 400 kilometers. Analysts at IHS/Janes, a military intelligence firm, believe there are elements of at least three Russian Battalion Tactical Groups in Yelsk.
The massive buildup of troops caused alarm among American and European leaders. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday that Moscow’s mobilization in Belarus is the biggest since the Cold War.
A European diplomat called the concentration of forces a “big, big concern”, noting that this would be the missing piece for Moscow to launch a swift attack on the Ukrainian capital of Kiev, which is less than two hours from the Belarusian border.
Based on publicly available weather calculations, the ideal time for a Russian invasion would be while the ground freezes so that heavy equipment can move around easily. US officials said Putin would understand he needs to move by the end of March.
The White House, however, stopped short of saying that a possible Russian invasion is “imminent” due to concerns that the term suggests that President Vladimir Putin has already made the decision to invade Ukraine.
“We still don’t know if he’s made a decision,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said last week.
Ukraine’s presidential adviser Mykhailo Podoliak said on Sunday there was no evidence Russia would take “critical steps towards a full-scale invasion” of the country, but added that Kiev and its partners were preparing for any possible scenarios.
“The situation is completely under control. One way or another, we are not reducing diplomatic work activity to ensure a sustainable and complete de-escalation,” Podoliak told state media.
He noted that the “threatening concentration” of Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders remains, but stressed that “it has been going on for several years”.
Source: CNN Brasil
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