See scenarios that can happen after the legislative election in the USA

This Tuesday (8) will be marked by the midterm election in the United States. Democrats hope to retain power, while Republicans hope to gain control of the House and Senate.

Here are five different scenarios that could be the key to how the battle for control of the country unfolds.

Georgia second round determines Senate

Unlike other US states, with tight Senate races, Georgia requires candidates to receive the most votes to win on Election Day. If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff between the two main candidates will be held in December.

Conditions are quite favorable for such a scenario. Neither Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock nor Republican Herschel Walker are at 50% in Georgia Senate polls. Chase Oliver of the Libertarian Party is pulling 3% to 4% of the vote.

If all other races go exactly as the polls predict, the Democrats will have 49 seats, not including Georgia. Republicans will have 50. That means the side that wins in Georgia will control the Senate.

Senate being drafted early

Then there’s the other side of the spectrum. Most people are predicting that it won’t be known who will win the Senate until days, if not weeks, after election day. That might be the case, but it’s far from a certainty.

There are a few ways winners can be announced quite quickly. The easiest way for this to happen is if the Republicans win both Georgia (with a majority to avoid a runoff) and Pennsylvania. That way, there would likely be no need to wait longer counts, as in Arizona and Nevada.

Another way this can happen is if there is a surprising result in the east. If Republicans have a really good night, they could win the New Hampshire Senate race, where Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan is running for re-election against Republican Don Bolduc.

If the Democrats perform well, they could win the Ohio Senate race, an open seat where Democratic Representative Tim Ryan faces JD Vance, who is endorsed by Donald Trump.

Even if it’s not possible to design the Senate quickly, surprising results like this one will give you a strong idea of ​​which way the wind is blowing.

Wait for the West Coast to determine the House

If the race for the House turns out to be tighter than expected, then mail-in voting could play a role. Specifically, states like California, Oregon and Washington that have massive mail-in voting.

This can delay vote counting, especially in California, where ballots only need to be posted on Election Day and the law allows for an extended period of vote counting.

In 2018, the election in California’s 21st District wasn’t decided until December 6, nearly a month after the November 7 election, because of the vote count.

This year, there are at least 9 races across the House on the west coast that seem to be tight. When you combine that with Alaska’s general seat (which features mail-in voting and ranked choice), it’s not hard to see how things can take a while to wrap up.

An advance formation of the Chamber

Just a few weeks ago, the race for the House and Senate looked tight. While the situation is still fierce in the Senate, it is easy to see how the House can be relatively formed.

If that happens, there’s no need to wait for the West Coast results. Instead, it will be possible to get a good idea from the first close of the surveys. Consider a race like this for Virginia’s 2nd District, a shape-shifting district centered on Virginia Beach. Representative Elaine Luria would likely win if Democrats were competitive in the House. If she is defeated, Republicans are likely on their way to controlling the House.

If it’s a big Republican night, we could also see Democratic Representative Frank Mrvan lose in Indiana, which unlike many other states, requires voters to have an excuse to vote in absentia.

The bottom line is that if Republicans end up with about 240 seats (as they did in 2010), the race for control of the House will not be prolonged.

Ranked choice voting determines House control

There are two states (Alaska and Maine) that have ranked choice voting. This allows voters to rank candidates on their ballot from most to least favorite. If no candidate is the majority of voters’ first choice, supporters of the candidate with the fewest votes in the first round will have their votes reallocated to the second choice. This sequence continues until one candidate has the most votes.

The House race for Alaska’s General District – a seat that was held by Republican Don Young for decades before he died and was replaced by Democrat Mary Peltola – and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District – the only swinging district in state – must be competitive. Both have had previous elections in which ranked choice voting determined a House winner.

Using ranked choice voting requires that all ballots be counted to correctly find out if more than one round is required and the order of elimination for candidates in those rounds.

This took up to nine days after the election for Maine’s 2nd district in 2018. In Alaska, it takes 15 days for ranked choice voting results to be known.