The year 2023 began with macroeconomic challenges for real estate funds, according to analysts, with fiscal risks and skyrocketing future interest rates. Thus, the expectation is that FIIs will maintain a high level of volatility in February.
This month, HGCR11 maintained the leadership of the CNN but unlike January, when it was alone the most recommended, this time the asset shares the position with CPTS11 and RBRR11, with five indications each.
See the complete list below:
For the composition of the portfolio, indications of some of the main banks and investment brokers in Brazil were listed. They are: Inter, XP, BTG Pactual, Banco do Brasil, Guide, Órama, Warren and Terra.
Highlights
Captaincy Securities II
Action: CPTS11
Comment: BTG Pactual
The CPTS ended the last month down 4.69%. In order to improve the risk-return ratio of its operations and the average rate of acquisition of its portfolio, the fund announced the allocation of R$ 71 million in two operations, of which: R$ 51 million in CRI Campinas Shopping (referring to the acquisition of Campinas Shopping by FII VISC11), and R$ 24 million in CRI Hedge Design Offices.
With the end of the deflationary period, the recurring result of the portfolio’s CRIs is returning to the historical average, thus, we should observe a recovery in the composition of dividends later on. For the short term, the fund remains exposed to the yields of invested FIIs and to the portfolio turnover strategy, which was restricted by the opening of the yield curve scenario that negatively impacted the price of these FIIs.
Despite the negative performance, we understand that the moment is opportune for allocations in assets with exposure to the IPCA, since, at the current price level, the CPTS11 presents a very attractive net rate of IPCA + 8.9% per year.
RBR High Grade Yield
Action: RBRR11
Comment: XP
The fund’s total portfolio of CRIs is 61.9% indexed to the IPCA, with an average rate of IPCA+6.64%, while 12.3% is allocated to CRIs indexed to the IGP-M, with an average rate of IGP-M +4.75%. The fund also holds 22.16% in assets indexed to the CDI, with an average rate of CDI+2.54% and a large part with maturity dates after 2030. The guarantees are mostly located in the Southeast region (89% of the portfolio), with a concentration of 46% in assets located in prime regions of the city of São Paulo.
In terms of the economic sector, 42% of the CRIs are for corporate buildings, 28% for logistics warehouses, 24% for residential buildings and 3% for shopping malls. In the last 12 months, the fund’s volatility and dividend yield were in line with the average of the FIIs of receivables analyzed, and a return above that of funds in the segment.
We believe that, with its current portfolio of CRIs, the fund should obtain favorable real returns over the next few years, also benefiting from the origination and structuring of CRIs itself and from their diversification between indexes, types of credit risks and economic sectors of the active.
CSHG Real Estate Receivables
Action : HGCR11
Comment : Bank of Brazil
HGCR11 presented, in December, a total result of around R$ 18.4 million (R$ 1.20/share). In view of the result for the month, and based on the projection of results for the semester, the fund has been maintaining the distribution level at around R$ 1.20/share.
Even if there is a drop in inflation over the next few months, the concentration of the portfolio in securities pegged to the CDI, as well as the fund’s cash reserve, should sustain a distribution level very close to the current one, which is very interesting if we take into account account the low risk of the fund’s portfolio of CRIs.
Source: CNN Brasil
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