A report by the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI), a body linked to the Federal Senate, projected some scenarios for the country’s public accounts for this year and next.
In general terms, the prospects for government revenue, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results and inflation figures are being revised upwards in 2022. In 2023, however, things change.
Following the same line of reasoning as many market analysts, the IFI sees concerns about next year’s public accounts and projects a slowdown in the economy, based on the analysis of two scenarios: one based on the government’s budget estimates; another, based on what the candidates for the Presidency of the Republic have proposed for next year’s economy, with promises that are not officially foreseen.
An example of this is the forecasts for the GDP. While 2022 is expected to see growth of 2.6%, scenarios for 2023 accounts vary. In the baseline analysis, 2023 GDP is forecast at 0.6%; in the alternative, which takes more stimuli into account, by 1%.
Two other important highlights of the report concern the balance of public accounts and government expenditures.
Both carry immense uncertainty, as the next administration’s fiscal policy remains clouded and this year’s spending, which breached the Annual Budget Law ceiling, has generated an increase in the country’s perception of risk.
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*Posted by Tamara Nassif
Source: CNN Brasil
