- The S&P 500 is down 12.58% for the year.
- The improved market mood caused a break from the lows but was short lived, trading close to the opening of the session.
- S&P 500 Technical Outlook: Bias to the downside, but could recover in the short term, followed by further decline.
From the beginning of 2022, the S&P 500 registered a fall of 14.52%, attributed to different factors. First, the Federal Reserve would begin its tightening cycle. Second, the Russian invasion of Ukraine created a crisis in the commodity complex, with oil prices soaring above $100 a barrel; wheat is posting all-time highs, while precious and base metals have seen gains of up to 250%, that’s in the case of nickel.
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 traded at 4,201, down 0.01%, as market sentiment improved, spurred by the announcement that Ukraine will not insist on joining NATO, AFP reported.
S&P 500 Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, the S&P has a bearish bias. The daily moving averages (DMAs) that reside above the price represent the aforementioned, the successive series of lower highs/lower lows, breaking previous support levels and paving the way for further losses.
During the day the S&P 500 jumped on June 18, 2021, lows around 4164.40, but faced strong resistance on October 4, 2021, support turned resistance at 4276.58.
With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.20 below the 50 midline signals, the downtrend persists but then a positive divergence forms on the daily chart, which means the index could print an upside. before resuming its downtrend.
That said, the S&P 500 would need a break above 4,276.58. In that case, the next resistance would be at 4,300. A break of the latter would expose a three-month downtrend line and the daily high of March 3 at 4416.78.
If that scenario plays out, due to improving market sentiment, US central bank tightening, elevated inflation levels and technicals will resume the downtrend towards new year-to-date lows.
Additional technical levels
|Last Price Today||4195.29|
|Today’s Daily Change||-3.79|
|Today’s Daily Change %||-0.09|
|Today’s Daily Opening||4199.08|
|20 Daily SMA||4375.63|
|50 Daily SMA||4506.92|
|100 Daily SMA||4574.8|
|200 Daily SMA||4476.26|
|Previous Daily High||4326.2|
|Previous Daily Minimum||4199.08|
|Previous Maximum Weekly||4420.17|
|Previous Weekly Minimum||4277.15|
|Monthly Prior Maximum||4592.23|
|Previous Monthly Minimum||4105.11|
|Daily Fibonacci 38.2%||4247.64|
|Daily Fibonacci 61.8%||4277.64|
|Daily Pivot Point S1||4156.71|
|Daily Pivot Point S2||4114.33|
|Daily Pivot Point S3||4029.59|
|Daily Pivot Point R1||4283.83|
|Daily Pivot Point R2||4368.57|
|Daily Pivot Point R3||4410.95|
Source: Fx Street