A study by the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) reveals that São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro should face an increase between 20% and 30% in the occurrence of severe storms between 2025 and 2034 .
THE CNN He had access to the unprecedented report, coordinated by Osmar Pinto Junior, from the Inpe atmospheric electricity group, which associates the phenomenon with global warming and the intensification of El Niño.
The study analyzed historical data from the last decade (2015-2024) and elaborated climate projections for the next ten years
The research defines severe storms such as those with a high incidence of atmospheric discharges and/or strong gusts of wind, capable of causing significant damage, A normal storm has an average of 100 rays, while the severe ones have a thousand, during the duration of rain .
“We had an x-ray of what has happened in the last ten years, from this, this relationship between the storms that have occurred and the weather conditions, we check what are the projections for the next decade. We came to a result that severe storms have been increasing. The population had this feeling, but now we have scientific proof, ”explains Osmar Pinto Jr., coordinator of the study.
The forecast is that the increase in storms will be driven mainly by global warming and the expected increase in the frequency of El Niño
Second Civil Defense of São Paulo, since the beginning of “Operation Summer”, in December 2024, so far, 19 people died in the state because of heavy rains.
Rays and thunder
Beyond the risks to life, with an average of 100 lightning deaths in Brazil Each year in the last two decades, severe storms cause damage of about $ 1 billion per year, especially in the electricity sector, telecommunications and industry, according to the survey.
The cities of Sao Paulo and Manaus lead the deaths by lightning, the first because of the population quantity and the second, because it is a place with many activities and works in the open.
The study does not monitor the losses resulting from floods and windstorms, also associated with these extreme climate events.
This content was originally published in severe storms should increase 30% in SP in the next decade on CNN Brazil.
Source: CNN Brasil
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