Short-term rentals increase long-term rentals by up to 33%

Where short-term rentals abound, long-term rental prices increase. The hypothesis was known, but only now research demonstrates it on the basis of a detailed analysis: the study was promoted byUniversity of Malaga in collaboration with two research institutes and highlights how in areas with a high concentration of holiday apartments, the cost of rentals grows by 33% more than in other areas.

What the study says

The work was presented a few days ago during a conference at the Faculty of Law of the University of Malaga. The researchers collected information from mapping services, databases and price variables in a period between 2016 and 2023. All based on four main locations: on the one hand Seville and Malaga, cities where the number of holiday apartments is high; on the other Jaén and Teruel, where the phenomenon is lower. Interviews were also carried out with residents of the historic center of the capital of Malaga, the main area of ​​interest, between November 2023 and February 2024. From all this, a complex model was established which allowed different conclusions to be drawn. The main one is that When neighborhoods have more than 10% of their housing stock dedicated to tourism, long-term rental prices see a dramatic increase.

The study highlights for example that in Malaga this increase was 31% and in Seville 33%. And although there are no areas with such tourist pressure in Jaén and Teruel, according to estimates, if the situation changed, prices would increase by 44% and 46% respectively. The clearest example is found in the La Merced neighbourhood, precisely the one with the greatest presence of accommodation for tourist use in the city, where the cost per square meter has increased from 8.8 euros in 2016, when the area had only 5% of tourist apartments, to 18 euros in 2024, the year in which it exceeded 40%. More than double, in fact. The situation «is worrying for urban destinations with high tourist intensity like Malaga and Seville,” the study notes. It is no coincidence that both Andalusian cities have the largest number of people who have gathered in the streets to demand access to housing while denouncing the consequences of mass tourism, such as the expulsion of residents from their neighborhoods. For this reason, on November 9th, around 13,000 people demonstrated in both capitals.

The Italian situation

Also during the conference at the Faculty of Law, Fátima Santos, researcher, showed data that reflects how all tourism-related indicators – from the number of tourists to overnight stays or accommodation places – have not stopped growing since the start of the pandemic. And the same is happening in Italy, where the spread of short-term rentals in recent years has played an important role, worsening the situation and taking properties away from the residential market (but the upcoming 2026 Winter Olympics have also contributed to the increases, especially in the North). And in fact, in 2024 the rental market recorded a significant increase in prices, with an increase of 10.6% compared to the previous year, bringing the national average rent to 13.8 euros per square meter. The cities where rents have increased the most are Rome (16.6%), Naples (16.2%) and Turin (11.5%). To great surprise, Milan showed a more contained growth of 1.7%, although it remains the one with the highest rents. Also for this reason, the conclusion of the new study should make us reflect: «That housing is a market good is a logical reality within the liberal economic system in which we operate. Its exclusive consideration as a market good, to the detriment of everything else, is a questionable choice that is starting to be contested by society.”