In the opinion of the currency strategists of UOB Group, the EUR / USD is at risk of a deeper pullback below the 1.1975 level in the coming weeks.
24 hour perspective: “Our expectation that the EUR would head higher last Friday was incorrect as it plunged past some strong support levels with ease (the low was 1.2015). The sharp and rapid fall is oversold, but there is room for a test of 1.2000 before the current weakness stabilizes. The next support at 1.1975 is unlikely to be threatened. The resistance is at 1.2050 followed by 1.2075 “.
Next 1-3 weeks: “In our latest narrative last Thursday (April 29, pair at 1.2135), we indicated that the positive phase in the EUR was still intact, but in view of the overbought conditions, the euro could have a difficult time breaking the increased resistance at 1.2185. However, we did not expect the sudden sharp drop on Friday that removed our “strong support” level at 1.2050 (1.2015 low). The breakout of this support indicates that the positive phase that started in early April has ended. From here, the Short-term bias is sloping to the downside, but the EUR has to break the main support at 1.1975 before a more sustained pullback can be expected. (and considerable). At this stage, the outlook for a breakout of 1.1975 is not high, but it would increase unless the euro moves above 1.2105 in these few days. “
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