- Silver just hit session highs of $21.60 after weak US retail sales data ahead of Wednesday’s Fed announcement.
- XAG/USD remains at risk of reversing the day’s gains if the Fed delivers an aggressive surprise.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) reached new session highs of $21.60 per troy ounce after the latest US retail sales report, which showed that, adjusted for inflation, overall sales were down 1.3% in May. The latest US data will undoubtedly lead to further negative revisions to GDP growth expectations in the second quarter, which should prompt further declarations of recession in the US by analysts.
XAG/USD is trading nearly 3% higher on the day, having bounced from around $21.00, with recession fears appearing to offer support to safe haven precious metals for now. However, it remains to be seen whether this rise can last until the next Fed meeting. The US central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points and be much more aggressive on the outlook of inflation, as well as regarding the perspectives of the so-called final interest rate.
While this aggressive stance is arguably already largely discounted, precious metals such as silver are still at risk of losses. The Fed’s monetary policy is often seen as negative for precious metals as it is associated with a stronger dollar and rising US yields, two factors that tend to weigh on silver. XAG/USD could find it difficult to break above its 21-day moving average in the coming hours and the bears would be looking for a return to $21.00 if the Fed were aggressive.
Technical levels
Source: Fx Street
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