Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD hovers around $21.00 despite weak US employment data

• Silver price remains directionless despite US ADP reporting weak labor market data.
• In September, fresh payrolls halved to 89,000, down from August’s reading of 180,000.
• Silver price broke the H&S chart pattern, triggering a vertical sell-off.

The price of the Silver (XAG/USD) continues to trade sideways near $21.00, as the US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) has reported that new private payrolls in September were almost half of the additions in August. New payrolls were 89,000, significantly missing expectations of 153,000 and the previous reading of 180,000.

September labor market data is of less importance as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next policy meeting is scheduled for November and October employment data will be closely watched by policymakers. But the chances of a further interest rate hike are expected to fade.

Although the president of the Cleveland Fed, Loretta Mester, was in favor of a new interest rate increase in the remainder of 2023 this week, as the US economy has resisted thanks to the labor market and consumer spending. Additionally, a significant improvement in the Manufacturing PMI for September has strengthened the outlook.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) corrects sharply to near 106.60 from an 11-month high of 107.20 and volatility is expected to continue as the US Institute for Supply Management ( ISM) Services PMI for September will be published at 14:00 GMT. The US ISM is expected to report September services PMI at 53.6, down from August’s reading of 54.5. The services PMI data has a significant impact on the Dollar Index, as it represents the services sector, which represents two-thirds of the US economy.

Silver technical analysis

The price of Silver presents a breakout of the head and shoulders chart pattern on a daily scale, leading to a vertical sell-off. The white metal breaks sharply below the neck line of the aforementioned chart pattern, drawn from the June 23 low of $22.11. Potential support lies at the March 8 low of $19.93.

Silver is trading below the 200-day EMA, indicating that the long-term trend is bearish.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is sliding into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, justifying further declines.

XAG Daily Chart