Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD Rebounds on Fed Uncertainty on Interest Rate Outlook

  • The silver price tries to recover as the bearish bias remains strong due to the resistance of the US dollar.
  • Fed Waller said more economic data is needed to say the Fed is done raising rates.
  • Silver is offering a mean reversion move near the 20 EMA around $23.80.

The price of the Silver (XAG/USD) discovers buying interest near $23.50 at the beginning of the American session. The white metal tries to recover after a strong sell-off, inspired by the resistance of the US dollar. The overall bias remains negative as the Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to extend its higher run.

The S&P 500 Index opens on a negative note as market sentiment remains cautious due to deepening global recession risks. The Greenback takes advantage of downbeat global data, especially the weakness of China’s services PMI. Economic data for August fell significantly to 51.8 from the previous release of 54.1. China’s service sector is facing pressure from deflation risks due to a deteriorating demand environment.

The Dollar Index faces profit-taking after hitting a fresh five-month high near 104.80, as Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller remains uncertain about the interest rate outlook. The Fed Governor told CNBC on Tuesday that economic data will guide whether the Fed needs to raise rates again, adding that he would need more data to say the Fed is done raising rates, according to Reuters. Furthermore, he added that one more interest rate hike is unlikely to send the economy into recession.

Turning to the labor market, the Fed governor noted that the rise in the unemployment rate was not surprising. The labor market has started to soften, but it is still very strong.

Silver Technical Analysis

Silver is offering a mean reversion move closer to the 20 period EMA around $23.80. The pair is trying to rally after testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement (traced from the Aug 15 low of $22.23 to the Aug 30 high of $25.02) at $23.62.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises to the 40.00-60.00 range from the 20.00-40.00 bearish range, indicating that the bearish momentum has lost steam.

La Plata hourly chart

XAG/USD

Overview
Last price today 23.78
Today Change Daily -0.22
today’s daily variation -0.92
today’s daily opening 24
Trends
daily SMA20 23.47
daily SMA50 23.7
daily SMA100 23.92
daily SMA200 23.44
levels
previous daily high 24.3
previous daily low 23.96
Previous Weekly High 25.02
previous weekly low 24.05
Previous Monthly High 25.02
Previous monthly minimum 22.23
Fibonacci daily 38.2 24.09
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 24.17
Daily Pivot Point S1 23.88
Daily Pivot Point S2 23.76
Daily Pivot Point S3 23.55
Daily Pivot Point R1 24.21
Daily Pivot Point R2 24.42
Daily Pivot Point R3 24.54

Source: Fx Street

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