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Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD Soars Amid Weak US Industrial Production and Jobless Claims Figures

  • The XAG/USD pair is trading at $23.80, its highest level since early September.
  • The dollar and Treasury yields fell after weak US economic data was reported.
  • As long as investors bet on a less aggressive Fed, it will benefit the gray metal.

He XAG/USD experienced important upward movements in the session on Thursday, reaching the level of $23.80, with an advance of more than 1.50%. The metal rose amid weakness in Industrial Production and jobless claims, which drove a decline in US yields, allowing the metal to gain interest.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 10 in the US saw a significant increase to 231,000, surpassing the projection of 220,000 and setting a three-month high. On the other hand, Industrial Production in October did not meet expectations, registering a month-on-month drop of 0.6%, exceeding the expected 0.3% decline. Following the release of the data, US Treasury yields, commonly viewed as the cost of unprofitable metal portfolio securities, fell sharply. The 2-year bond yield fell to 4.83%, while the 5-year and 10-year yields fell 4.42% and 4.44%, respectively.

It must be taken into account that the US economy has recently reported a cooling in inflation and job creation, which makes investors confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not adopt a more aggressive stance in its upcoming meetings. . In addition, the bank official also stated that they needed to see more evidence that the economy was slowing, hence the reports of the Consumer and Producer Price Indices, the increase in jobless claims and the weakening of Industrial Production, reinforced the arguments in favor of a more moderate monetary policy.

Meanwhile, CME’s FedWatch tool indicates that the market has already factored in a pause in December and is now pricing in rate cuts for April-May 2024. Consequently, as the US dollar weakens and investors anticipate a Federal Reserve less aggressive, the price of Silver could continue to rise.

XAG/USD levels to watch

On the daily chart, the XAG/USD pair has a bullish technical bias as indicators suggest that buyers are in control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates positive momentum with an upward slope above its midline, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) histogram prints larger green bars. Zooming in, the pair is above the 20,100,200-day SMA, suggesting that the bulls are also firmly in control of the overall trend.

Supports: $23.50, $23.30 – $23.20 (convergence of the 200 and 100 day SMAs).
Resistances: $24.00, $24.30, $24.50.

XAG/USD daily chart


Latest price today 23.83
Daily change today 0.40
Today’s daily variation 1.71
Today’s daily opening 23.43
daily SMA20 22.9
daily SMA50 22.66
SMA100 daily 23.19
SMA200 daily 23.27
Previous daily high 23.62
Previous daily low 23.03
Previous weekly high 23.26
Previous weekly low 22.19
Previous Monthly High 23.7
Previous monthly low 20.68
Daily Fibonacci 38.2 23.4
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 23.26
Daily Pivot Point S1 23.1
Daily Pivot Point S2 22.77
Daily Pivot Point S3 22.51
Daily Pivot Point R1 23.69
Daily Pivot Point R2 23.95
Daily Pivot Point R3 24.28

Source: Fx Street

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