“These wars are unlikely, until the moment they happen” said International Relations specialist Felippe Ramos during an interview with CNN about tension on the border between Venezuela and Guyana.
Ramos recalled that wars between Russia and Ukraine, as well as Israel and Hamas, also proved unlikely before the conflict actually began.
“Risk must be considered as existing, even if currently under control”, states Ramos.
For the expert, the “situation could get out of control” since Venezuela’s military base is made up of more than 2,000 generals who disagree on political and economic issues.
For comparison purposes, Brazil and the United States have 200 generals each in control of the army, a number 10 times smaller than Venezuela’s.
“Since Hugo Chávez, Venezuela has used promotion to the rank of general precisely as a way of appeasing the different interests of the Armed Forces that made up the government. This means that there is a difficulty in articulating command, in maintaining troop units”, he comments.
Ramos highlights that since 2015, an internal crisis caused by the economy has shaken the military base, in addition to numerous cases of corruption in the Armed Forces. In this way, “unpredictability and risk (for a conflict) greatly increases,” he says.
Venezuela has an advantage over Guyana as there is a clear difference in the size of the armies. The Venezuelan Defense Forces can be compared with those of Brazil, in terms of size and level of technology.
“There is clear military superiority,” says Ramos.
However, in the event of a conflict, Guyana would be supported by the United States and China. The Chinese, even though they are Venezuela’s allies, have economic objectives in the Essequiba region and a war is not in their interest.
Maduro started to claim the territory, covering more than 160,000 square meters, after Guyana discovered offshore oil and gas. Since then, Guyana has shown significant economic growth. According to Ramos, in 2022 alone, the country’s economy grew by 60%.
Guyana, which currently produces around 400,000 barrels of oil and gas per day, this year received proposals from companies for international tenders.
Expansion to Brazil
When asked about the possibility of the conflict expanding to Brazil, Ramos states that “it would be inevitable”. Since a possible land invasion by Venezuela in Guyana would have to be via Brazilian territory.
However, Ramos points out that in the event of an invasion, Venezuela would opt for sea routes.
Source: CNN Brasil
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