The presidential race in the United States is proving to be extremely close, with voting intention polls indicating a minimal difference between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
This closeness in the polls has left political analysts on alert, suggesting that the election is still far from being decided.
Clifford Young, president of Ipsos in the United States, in an interview with WW this Tuesday (15), highlighted the volatility of the current electoral scenario.
According to the expert, the small margin between the candidates makes the dispute highly unpredictable, with the potential for significant changes until voting day.
The “October Surprise” factor
Traditionally, American elections are marked by the phenomenon known as “October Surprise” – unexpected events that occur close to the election and can influence the final result.
Young, however, ponders the impact of this factor in the current scenario: “A surprise is a surprise, that is, you cannot predict what it will be. Of course, a major negative or positive event for one side or the other could have an effect,” said the expert.
He points out, however, that given the narrow margin between Trump and Harris, even a seemingly minor event could have significant consequences.
Technical draw scenario
Young’s analysis highlights how delicate the current balance in the polls is: “You have to think that the difference between Trump and Harris is very, very small, a point here, half a point there.”
This situation of virtual technical draw amplifies the importance of each movement of the candidates and of external events that could influence public opinion.
The expert warns against “magical thinking” that no event could change the current situation. He argues that, precisely due to the proximity of the numbers, any fluctuation, however small, can be decisive for the final result of the election.
This content was originally published in Small difference between Kamala and Trump in the polls leaves the election open, says expert to CNN on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
