The Turkish pound is again the currency with the worst performance against the dollar so far in 2022. Economists at TD Securities expect the dollar / pound exchange rate to be pushed to 19.00 in the coming weeks.
The TCMB continues to hamper monetary tightening
“Repeated patterns of the Turkish lira’s conversion into foreign currency deposits suggest that the Turkish lira will continue to depreciate in the coming months, following a brief reversal in January and February. push to 19.00 against the dollar “, say the economists of TD Securities.
“The Central Bank of Turkey (CMB) is unlikely to raise interest rates for the time being, leaving them waiting at 14% once again on June 23. The summer months, historically prone to causing a monetary crisis in weak economies, may nevertheless force the TCMB to review and start moving nominal interest rates higher.
We still expect a total of 1,400 bps of tightening in three consecutive months. “But instead of June, we expect it to start in July.”
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