South Korea: Political turmoil continues after martial law reversal – UOB Group

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol shook markets after declaring emergency martial law around 11pm local time on Tuesday night (December 3), only to lift it six hours later following a parliamentary vote in which 190 of the 300 legislators demanded the lifting of martial law. Under South Korean law, the government must lift martial law if a majority in parliament demands it in a vote, say UOB Group FX analysts Ho Woei Chen and Peter Chia.

Political miscalculation likely to bring early end to President Yoon’s term

“South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol shook markets after declaring emergency martial law around 11 pm local time on Tuesday night (December 3), only to lift it six hours later. It is expected “May the South Korean financial authorities’ promise to ‘inject unlimited liquidity’ stabilize the markets.”

“Next to watch will be the political fallout for President Yoon. Impeachment proceedings could follow soon, bringing an early end to his term originally scheduled to end in May 2027. General elections will likely be held in early 2025 following the impeachment. “

“Given the political uncertainties, the BOK could make the next 25 basis point cut as soon as its January meeting (January 16). Although the currency has recovered most of the losses, the USD/KRW is likely to hold above 1,400 in the near term, reflecting political uncertainties. At the same time, the BOK’s promise may help reduce the decline of the KRW. Overall, we reiterate the view that the USD/KRW will trade higher during. most of 2025.”

Source: Fx Street

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