Credit Suisse economists maintain a Tactical bullish outlook for a return to 3,645 points, followed by trend resistance since February at 3,668, but with support at 3,585 needing to hold to keep the immediate risk of the S&P 500 skewing higher.
“The S&P 500 rally has stopped short term, but with support from the lower end of Monday morning’s bullish gap at 3.585 still intact, our bias remains to continue upward“.
“While we continue being cautiously bullish, rather than aggressive, due to a growing number of over-extension measures (85% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day average and the market remains at the upper end of its ‘typical’ extreme ), looking for a break above 3,629 points for a retest of the current high of 3,645, with room for a visit to the trend resistance line since February, now at 3.668. This is still seen as the key test. Higher up are resistances in 3.700, in front of 3.765 and finally the ‘objective of the triangle measured’ at 3,900 points “.
“But nevertheless, a new rejection of 3,645 / 68 would be a concern, especially given the over-extension. A comeback below 3,585 would raise the possibility of further lateral range and a fall back to 3.553 and more likely a retest of the level of 3.519/09“.