Spanish tourism is freezing
For the sector, the winter of 2019 was not followed by the summer of 2020, but another economic winter. Let's go for the third
We understand by support that technical level where there is a high probability that the value will stop falling or correcting. Sometimes we forget that behind these supports there are millions of euros put in by investment banks that fight with the offer of who, either out of fear or to satisfy a return, sells some shares. The technical analysis helps us not to buy at random, it helps us to detect entry levels where we can optimize the probability of success of our operations, But for this analysis to be effective we need the mind to intervene as little as possible, and that is already more difficult to control, as we are seeing in the market moment that has been experienced these days ago. When a value reaches a support, especially during a correction, we have to analyze the market well and, if there is no external element that distorts the statistics, we have to trust it. These days, after the sharp rise experienced when the approval of the covid vaccine was announced, the values have returned to support levels and are the prices at which you have to be brave (always with the peace of mind of knowing that, if it doesn’t work out, there will be a savior to our mistake: the stop loss).
However, as I have commented previously, you have to be a little more selective and, in the face of such a large number of values that reach the support zone, you have to discard, from the outset, those most vulnerable to the news and, for therefore, those over which we can have the least control.
Tourism is, today, a sector that it is advisable to discard. Right now I am writing on board the Boeing 777 that flies from Paris to Cancun and I can assure you that this world is far from recovering what 365 days ago we considered normality. The reason why tourism supports are the least reliable is not this trip that I am taking, although it helps me understand the tremendous difficulties that the airlines face. It is very impressive to see the low level of frequencies not just from El Prat (I’ve gotten used to seeing Terminal 1 empty on my regular trips between Ibiza and Barcelona), but from an airport as imposing as Charles de Gaulle. All are extra costs for the companies that try to transmit peace of mind to the passenger, extra costs that go straight to a margin that is already squalid because of the low prices of tickets. From here, everything goes in a chain. Hotels three times cheaper than usual, car rentals, reservation centers … In the Spanish case, the problem is complicated when the rules of the game are not the same for everyone. Your industry is going to be destroyed if measures are not relaxed, since competitors such as Cancun or the Tulum hotel zone only offer facilities to those who decide to go to Mexico. To get to Ibiza, for example, a Balearic resident will have an antigen test at the airport if he has spent more than 72 hours outside the island and, if he is not a resident, he will have to arrive in Ibiza, when they let him go again, with a negative PCR. Meanwhile, to travel the almost 10,000 kilometers that separate Ibiza from Tulum, what the airline company with which I have flown, the wonderful country that is Mexico or the beautiful hotel that I have booked is … any. Yes, you have read it correctly: nothing. You do not have to present any document that proves you are free of covid. How are we going to compete with such measures? To this day, it is impossible.
Seasonal businesses lived a winter in the summer of 2020 due to the impossibility of opening and are now experiencing another winter. A sector that lives off the summer cannot bear so many consecutive winters. Neither the beach bar nor the large hotel chains can afford the fourth consecutive winter, which is what it would mean not to resume activity this coming summer.
It is urgent to try to play the game with the same rules as in other countries, because the stop loss ceased to exist months ago.