• The US dollar remains stable above 97.50 after modest losses during Asian negotiation hours.
• The minutes of the June FOMC meeting indicate that most officials support a rate cut later this year.
• Impulse indicators suggest a weak recovery, with the RSI still below 50 and the MACD improving something.

The US dollar (USD) maintains its position on Thursday after a weak start to the day, while investors digest new tariff threats from US President Donald Trump.

The dollar slid during Asian negotiation hours and backed away some of this week’s profits. He was also pressed for a strong drop in treasure yields, promoted by a strong demand at the 10 -year bond auction on Wednesday and signs in the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of June that interest rates could be reduced later this year.

The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of six main currencies, is rising slightly during European negotiation hours. At the time of writing, the index is around 97.57, recovering from a daily minimum of 97.27.

President Trump intensified his commercial offensive on Wednesday by publishing a second round of tariff cards on his social truth platform. The new letters pointed to seven additional countries – including the Philippines, Brunei, Moldova, Algeria, Iraq, Libya and Sri Lanka – with proposed import tariffs that range between 20% and 30%. This movement adds to the growing list of nations that face possible commercial actions of the US and has increased investors’ concerns about a broader global commercial conflict, providing some support to the US dollar.

He also issued a severe letter addressed to Brazil, with a 50% tariff on his exports, citing the “witch hunt” trial of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally. He wrote a letter to the Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, qualifying the trial of “international misfortune” and demanding that he end “immediately!”. While analysts consider that this movement is politically charged, Trump’s hard position stands out in commerce.

Market movements: Caute Fed, Trump tariff threats and growing American debt

• The minutes of the FOMC meeting of June 17-18, published on Wednesday, showed that most participants considered that a rate cut would be probably appropriate at some point in this year. They noticed that inflation related to tariffs could be temporary or modest, the expectations of medium and long term inflation remain firmly anchored, and some deceleration could occur in economic activity or in working conditions. However, a couple of participants (widely believed that include Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman) pointed out that, if the data evolves according to their expectations, they would be open to consider a reduction in the objective range for the policy rate as soon as in the next meeting. Even so, others preferred to maintain stable interest rates until the end of the year, underlining the cautious and dependent on Fed data.
• At the June meeting, the FOMC voted unanimously to leave the objective rate of federal funds without changes in 4.25%-4.50%. After the publication of the June minutes, the market assessment for a rate cut this month has decreased dramatically. According to CME’s Fedwatch tool, operators now assign only 6.7% probability to a rate cut in July, a strong fall from about 20-25% only a few days ago. On the other hand, the approach has moved to the September meeting, where the probabilities of a 25 basic points are located in almost 67.3%, reflecting increasing expectations of flexibility later in the year.
• While the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains a cautious and data -dependent posture, its message is increasingly eclipsed by political pressure. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump asked for an aggressive 3 percentage -point rate cut, arguing that it would significantly reduce the cost of refinancing the national debt. In a publication in Truth Social, he said that each percentage point costs the US 360 billion dollars annually, stating: “Our Fed rate is at least 3 points too high … Without inflation, companies entering in America … Lower the rate !!!”
• The US national debt has increased to 36.6 billion dollars, uploading almost 370 billion dollars in just the last day, according to the latest treasury data. The strong increase follows the approval of the so -called “a great beautiful law”, which raised the debt roof in 5 billion dollars and raided the way for an increase in government indebtedness. Treasury officials are expected to now issue a wave of short -term treasure letters to cover the expanding deficit, which could add pressure on yields and complicate the Fed path towards interest rate cuts.
• President Trump officially extended the deadline for his reciprocal tariff campaign until August 1, postponing the end of the 90 -day initial grace period that was scheduled to expire on July 9. Until now, 21 countries have received formal tariff warning letters, with proposed import tariffs that range between 20% and 50%. Until now, only the United Kingdom, Vietnam and China have reached provisional agreements, while others remain at risk of severe commercial sanctions. The extended timeline contributes to global commercial uncertainty and continues to influence the feeling of the market around safe refuge flows and risk assets.
• On Wednesday, President Trump reaffirmed his plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, effective on August 1, citing national security concerns. In a publication in Truth Social, he wrote: “Copper is necessary for semiconductors, aircraft, ships, ammunition, data centers, lithium -ion batteries, radar systems, missile defense systems and even hypersonic weapons … Why do our ‘dumb (and sleepy (and sleepy leaders’ leaders!) Destroyed this important industry?” Trump argued that the high dependence on imports threatens US defensive preparation and promised to rebuild a “dominant copper industry.” This movement expands the scope of Trump’s commercial offensive and could interrupt the global copper flows and industrial supply chains.

Technical analysis: DXY remains stable inside a descending wedge

The American dollar index (DXY) is around 97.40 on Thursday, consolidating after a rebound from a minimum of three years of 97.27 earlier this month. The index continues to move within a well -defined descending wedge pattern, a structure often associated with the potential of bullish reversal.

The 97.80-98.00 zone, which previously acted as a support, has now become resistance and aligns closely with the upper wedge limit, creating a critical barrier for any rising rupture, while the 9-day EMA in 97.38 acts as a short-term dynamic support zone.

Impulse indicators show a tentative recovery but lack a strong conviction. The Relative Force Index (RSI) Ronda 41.89, recovering from the territory of overall but still below the neutral line of 50. Meanwhile, the MACD shows early signs of a bullish crossing, with the histogram becoming slightly positive.

A rupture above 98.00 would indicate a possible reversal of trend, while a sustained weakness below 97.50 could trigger a new test of the lower limit of the descending wedge pattern about 96.50.