According to the forecasts of a large investment bank, halving cycles are unlikely to negatively affect the price of bitcoin in the second half of the year due to the influx of institutional money for cryptocurrency, writes RBC Crypto.
Bitcoin went beyond the market of 18-month cycles observed from the moment of its launch in early 2009. This conclusion was reached by the analysts of the British Standard Chartered Bank, predicting the growth of the main cryptocurrency to $ 135 thousand by the end of the third quarter and $ 200 thousand, according to Cointelegraph. Experts referred to the demand from public companies and a strong influx of funds from exchange funds (ETF).
“Thanks to growing investment flows, we believe that Bitcoin went beyond the previous dynamics when prices fell 18 months after halving,” said Jeff Kendrick, head of the bank’s digital assets research, adding that the repetition of the usual cycles would lead to a reduction in prices in September 2025.
Standard Chartered periodically publishes forecasts for the price of the main cryptocurrency and in recent months the bank adheres to optimistic targets in bitcoin. In one of the latest forecasts, analysts called a figure of $ 500 thousand by 2029. The main reason is considered to be the growing interest of state organizations around the world in indirect investment in bitcoin through the purchase of shares of companies such as Strategy (MSTR).
On the other hand, the bank experts see the risk of popularizing investments in the main cryptocurrency by attracting third -party capital at a percentage or other obligations in the future.
Halving is a planned and programmed event in the Bitcoin code, which occurs about once every four years, being a mechanism that reduces the pace of inflation of new coins of the main cryptocurrency.
The history of the main cryptocurrency quotes shows that the price of bitcoin updated the maximum between the halving cycles. For example, at the end of 2013, about a year after halving, Bitcoin reached $ 1.2 thousand. In the next market cycle, at the end of 2017, the price of $ 20 thousand per bitcoin became a maximum. At the end of 2021 – $ 69 thousand.
However, 2024 went beyond the previous cyclicity of the Bitcoin price, when the quotes for the first time exceeded the previous maximum before the halving – in March the price of BTC increased to $ 73 thousand, and the halving was in April 2024.
The same dependencies worked on a decrease in the quotes between the halving in Bitcoin – this is what Kendard from Standard Chartered, which suggested that cyclicality from the point of view of falling Bitcoin prices also ceased to exist. According to statistics, 18 months after halving (in 2024 it took place in April), prices should decline, that is, in September – October 2025.
“We expect the prices to resume the ascending trend, supported by the continuing active tributaries in ETF and the corporate purchases of Bitcoin,” Kendrick wrote, emphasizing that both of these drivers were absent in previous cycles.
Exchange Traded Funds, ETFs based on bitcoin provide investors with legal access to cryptocurrency through the NASDAQ and NYSE exchanges in shares format. The issuance of new shares requires the actual delivery (purchase) of bitcoin funds. Demand from such ETF provided the cryptor of a significant influx of capital and became the driver of its growth in 2024.
At the same time, Standard Chartered analysts still do not exclude that the price of bitcoin can be somewhat unstable at the end of the third and beginning of the fourth quarter against the background of fears regarding the model based on Halvin cycles.
Tributaries in Bitcoin-ETF
Kendrick’s latest conclusions regarding the optimistic influence of institutional purchases on the Bitcoin course appeared against the backdrop of the fact that the flows in ETF became negative, according to Sosovalue on June 2, after 15 days in a row of a tributary of funds.
American bitcoin -etf recorded a total outflow of $ 342.3 million, which was the first daytake of June 6. The outflow on June 1 amounted to 7% of the total influx of $ 4.8 billion recorded in 15 trade days.
According to Kendrick, Bitcoin-ETF flows and corporate purchases made up a total of 245 thousand BTCs in the second quarter. “We expect that this level will be exceeded both in the third and in the fourth quarter,” he added.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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