The shares of Brazilian state-owned companies listed on the B3 register a better performance than the Ibovespa, the main index of the Brazilian stock exchange, in 2022, according to a survey by economist Einar Riveiro, from TradeMap, at the request of the CNN Brasil Business.
The biggest increase among state-owned companies this year was Petrobras, registering a jump of 98.3%. Banco do Brasil follows, with a rise of 67.9%, and Eletrobras appears later, with gains of 62%. In the same period, the Ibovespa rose 14.41%.
Regarding Petrobras, which had the highest performance on the list, Mantaro’s managing partner, Paulo Abreu, says that the good phase of the oil cycle and less intervention by the State allowed the company to exert a competitive advantage.
Phil Soares, head of equity analysis at Órama Investimentos, links Petrobras’ gains to the price of oil — which has risen over the past two years — as well as the distribution of high dividends to investors. “Petrobras also has a positive phase on account of governance,” he said.
For him, the capitalization of Eletrobras cooperated for the company to present a sharp rise this year and appear in third place in those that had the most profitability.
The specialist also highlights the shares of Cemig, Copel and Sabesp, which rose throughout the year. “These companies are in line with Ibovespa, largely due to the perspective of continuity of work, even with the changes of state government due to the elections”.
About banks, Gustavo Harada, head of variable income at Blackbird Investimentos, says that the sector has been delivering expressive results in its credit portfolios, and continues with a conservative profile, putting more pressure on margins, as well as private banks.
Growth of R$ 266.7 billion this year
According to the survey, the market value of state-owned companies grew by R$266.7 billion this year, from R$696.9 billion to R$963.6 billion.
For Abreu, the values of state-owned assets came from a low level, given the policy that was being applied in each of the companies. There was a great discipline of capital allocation in the companies, with investors placing more state-owned shares in their portfolios. “All this evolved and manifested itself in returns to the companies themselves. The results on equity were relevant,” he said.
However, now in October, the economist says that companies start to have other priorities, such as the election. “Managers start trying to guess what market agents think of the candidates, who is the best and the worst for each of the companies, directly impacting the share price of state-owned companies”, he says.
What are the risks of investing in an election year?
The change of government is the risk most cited by economists. However, Soares believes that state companies are more stable. He says that most of the elections for governors have already been decided and those that haven’t been, are already advanced.
“If we use the example of Rio Grande do Sul, which will be decided in the second round, there are two pro-market candidates, indicating few changes regardless of the result”, he explains.
Soares makes a reservation in relation to the federal state companies in this period. “The vision of the candidates for the presidency of the country is very different, that is, the candidates have different perspectives in relation to the future of the companies. This calls for caution to the market,” he said.
In Harada’s opinion, it is worth investing in state-owned companies. “If we take a medium and long term, the results of the companies have a positive sign. The risks, in a matter of election year, depend on each company, and the investor must evaluate the income and perspectives of each one”, he clarifies.
However, Harada makes one caveat. “Each candidate has his position. One will benefit more from education, social investments, etc. Banks and oil companies may suffer the most. The other already has a more entrepreneurial vision. So, it’s up to the investor to know what risks he wants to take,” he warns.
Source: CNN Brasil
Joe Jameson, a technology journalist with over 2 years of experience, writes for top online news websites. Specializing in the field of technology, Joe provides insights into the latest advancements in the industry. Currently, he contributes to covering the world stock market.
