Study: A nuclear war, even a small one, will threaten billions of people with starvation and death

A limited nuclear war would be enough to set off a chain of events that would result in a global food crisis and deadly famine, on top of the deaths from nuclear weapons explosions themselves, scientists warn. While a massive scale nuclear war, such as a US-Russian one, could lead to the death of over half of humanity.

The study estimates that a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, for example, could result in as many as 2.5 billion starvation deaths over the next two years. In a much wider geographically and massively scaled US-Russia nuclear conflict, starvation-related deaths could – in the worst case scenario – soar even above five billion, more than half of all humanity.

The modeling analysis, published in the food science journal Nature Food, which estimates (through six possible scenarios) the effects of a once-unthinkable nuclear war, highlights that soot released en masse into the atmosphere would lead to food shortages and many starvation-related deaths.

The use of nuclear weapons (missiles or bombs) will cause massive fires, resulting in the accumulation of large amounts of soot in the atmosphere, which will block solar radiation from reaching the surface of the planet, lowering temperatures and thus limiting productivity of plants, ultimately reducing food production. The scale of these impacts will depend on how large the drop in temperatures will be and how widespread the changes in precipitation will be, which will depend on how much soot reaches the upper atmosphere.

The researchers, led by assistant professor of atmospheric-climate science Lily Xia of Rutgers University in New Jersey, modeled the effects of six atmospheric scenarios, after a week of minor or major nuclear war, on major agricultural crops (wheat, corn, rice, soybeans), in livestock, fisheries and other food supplies.

Even if compensatory measures are taken, such as reducing the waste of food thrown into the garbage and redirecting various agricultural products produced (e.g. animal feed for human consumption), scientists predict that the available livestock and fishery production will not be able to compensate for the agricultural shortages in most countries. Any nuclear explosion producing more than 5 trillion grams of soot is predicted to likely lead to massive food shortages in almost all countries.

The decline in agricultural production is expected to be greater in mid- to high-latitude countries, including major agricultural exporters such as the US itself and Russia. Based on the worst nuclear scenario, more than 75% of the planet is estimated to starve within the next two years after the catastrophic war. The destruction of the ozone layer in the stratosphere will result in more ultraviolet solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface, which will have effects – beyond the direct ones on human health – and indirect effects on global nutrition.

The researchers point out that these ominous estimates from their models highlight the enormous consequences of any nuclear conflict for planetary and human health, so global cooperation is the only way to avoid such a dire eventuality.

“The data tells us one thing: We have to prevent a nuclear war from happening at some point,” said Rutgers climate science professor Alan Robock. “As long as nuclear weapons exist, they can be used, and the world has come close to nuclear war several times. Banning nuclear weapons is the only long-term solution. To date the five-year-old United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons has ratified by 66 countries, but not by any of the nine nuclear powers. Our study makes it clear that the time has come for these nine nations to listen to science and the rest of the world and sign this agreement,” he added.

SOURCE: AMPE