Study predicts bitcoin at $94,000 this year; experts differ on deadline

A study carried out by the payment solutions platform Finder with 33 experts in the cryptocurrency sector points out that bitcoin is expected to reach $93,700 this year.

experts heard by CNN Brasil Business believe that the value of the cryptocurrency will advance, but disagree on how long it will take for this level to be reached. Currently, the price of bitcoin is around $37,000.

Mayra Siqueira, general manager of Binance in Brazil, says that $93,700 is “not enough for the potential that bitcoin can reach”, but that it may not happen in 2022.

She says that in addition to the volatility caused by events in the crypto sector, such as adoption by large companies and the emergence of new regulations or sanctions, the market has been impacted by Covid-19.

However, Siqueira says that the innovation of the cryptocurrency industry walks “in strides”, fostering the market and expanding the opening of the sector to retail.

She cites the case of El Salvador, the first country to use bitcoin as its official currency. “We also see the City of Miami maturing these discussions a lot. Including Rio de Janeiro, which announced the launch of Crypto Rio and initiatives such as Porto Maravalley, which will certainly help strengthen the crypto ecosystem in Brazil.”

Tatiana Revoredo, a professor at Insper, says that, in the long term, the digital asset should follow a growth trend, driven mainly by the spontaneous increase in investors.

According to a survey by Hashdex, the number of Brazilian investors in the crypto market grew by 1,266% in the last year. In 2020, 30 thousand investors were registered, while in 2021 there were 410 thousand.

Revoredo further says that large companies such as Nike, looking for ways to monetize their products in the metaverse, the growth in the use of cryptocurrencies in games, the increase in demand for virtual land and NFTs have made the cryptocurrency grow in popularity.

For João Canhada, CEO of Foxbit, bitcoin could exceed US$ 93,700 in the next five years and remains “a great way to buy in the long term”.

He says that bitcoin’s hash rate (computing power used to mine) has increased, which represents an improvement in the infrastructure of the bitcoin network.

For Finder founder Fred Schebesta, “Cryptocurrencies are proving to be strong competition for traditional financial infrastructure, proving reliable deliverability. And there is no sign of a slowdown in the DeFi (decentralized finance) market.”

Henrique Teixeira, country manager at BitcoinTrade, on the other hand, believes that the cryptocurrency is expected to fluctuate between $30,000 and $60,000 in most months in 2022, “mostly because of the crypto winter.” The term defines a period of cooling off in the cryptocurrency market, with falling assets.

“If this period lasts longer than anticipated and extends beyond 2022, the risk of bitcoin not reaching $93,000 is considerable,” he says. The market expects the halving, the burning of cryptocurrencies within each block, which takes place every four years, to end the winter period.

For Teixeira, other stones on the way are also on the horizon of bitcoin’s rise: pandemic and interest rate.

Governments have been raising interest rates around the world to fight inflation. “With a higher base interest rate, the fixed income market will capture volumes that are currently in equity, causing stock markets and digital assets to fall and this capital to migrate to lower risk investments.”

The regulatory movement across countries is also something that scares the sector. While not a culmination for bitcoin right now, Alex Buelau, chief technology officer at fintech Parfin, says regulatory breakthroughs can either help crypto assets or bring them down.

bitcoin history

Between 2012 and 2016, bitcoin went from $5 to around $800. However, it was not until 2017 that the cryptocurrency reached $1,000.

Caio Villa, investment director at Uniera, says that that year smart contracts began to be used in some blockchains, such as ethereum, and ended up impacting bitcoin, which soared.

Another strong movement led by the digital currency was between March 12, 2020 and April 13, 2021. At the time, the cryptocurrency also showed gains of more than 1,200%.

To date, bitcoin has never surpassed $67,529.90. The level was reached on November 8, 2021. “The record occurred because there was a strong entry of new investors in the sector”, explains the investment director at Uniera.

“And, normally, in these big peaks, there is a correction, because the same person who enters thinking that the price will go up in a short period of time, when he sees a small drop, thinks that the asset will turn to dust, and ends up selling in loss”.

Here’s how bitcoin has performed over the last 10 years:

*With information from João Pedro Malar, from CNN Brasil Business