Supermarkets in Greece win, while they lose

By George Lampiris

To win compared to 2019 – a year before the pandemic – while losing sales in 2022, supermarkets have managed to against rising inflation, as stated in the 12th Food Retail CEO Forum organized by the self-service magazine, Vaios Dimoragas, general manager of NielsenIQ for Greece and Bulgaria.

Regarding Greece, Mr. Dimoragas characteristically stated that this year “has not started badly”, with January recording a decrease in sales by -3.6% compared to January 2021, followed by a percentage of sales decline 1, 8% in February, while March recorded a growth rate of 1.2% for supermarkets. Explaining his report that this year has been positive despite the decline, he pointed to the fact that supermarket sales – despite unpredictable inflation and the war in Ukraine – are nevertheless comparable to the three months of 2021, which were months of lockdown, which caused consumer tension and panic shopping in supermarkets.

Sales increased by 14% from the pre-Covid period and in 2019

In fact, looking at the overall market development within the first quarter of 2022, supermarkets recorded sales of 2.2 billion euros, an amount that was greater than 1.9 billion euros, which corresponds to a growth of 14%.

In an effort to deconstruct inflation in fast-moving consumer goods owned by supermarkets in Greece, we will recall that sales in value grew by 9% in 2020 and 2021 closed with a growth of 1.3% with inflation growing by a third and fourth quarter of last year. With the entry of 2022, inflation begins to increase with a larger increase in the average price, accompanied by a reduction in consumption by about 5% in the first two months of 2022. According to Mr. Dimoraga, inflation in supermarkets is real and growing, however controlled to a degree. He even stressed that consumers are aware of this increase, as in a survey conducted by NielsenIQ at the end of 2021, 92% of respondents said that “food prices are rising.” Consumers react to the increases by limiting the luxuries, buying only the essentials or looking for products in accent or even fewer products in their entire basket. At the same time, however, they are turning to cheaper brands or private label products.

Larger increases in bread and pasta

Looking at individual categories of goods, several of them show a decrease in consumption. However, there are categories that despite the increase in the average price – such as bread, pasta and cookies – in general prices show an increase in absolute sales. At the same time, however, pasta and bread increase in volume of consumption in addition to their sales value. In particular, bread in the first two months of this year showed an increase in average price by 8.8%, with an increase in sales in volume by 3% and in value by 5.8%. The pasta increased its average price by 9.4%, with a simultaneous increase in sales volume by 2.1% and value by 7.3% and the cookies increased in price by 3.5%, with an increase in sales value by 4.2 % and marginal decrease in sales in volume by 0.7%.

Conversely, cold cuts present a similar picture, with a decrease in value and sales volume as well as a decrease in the average price. It is characteristic that in the first two months of 2022, cold cuts show a decrease in sales by volume by 2.2%, a decrease in sales volume by 2.6% and a decrease in prices by 4.8%.

Personal care products and home care products are affected

In terms of personal care products, in 2021 they showed a deflationary behavior throughout the year. However, from the third quarter of last year onwards, the appearance of inflation and the increase in the average price was observed, which seemed to intensify in January and February 2022, with a more significant decrease in sales volume. Exceptions are products such as women’s hygiene products with an average price increase of 3% in the first two months, an increase in sales in value by 6.5% and a decrease in sales volume by 3.4%. Adult diapers recorded a price increase of 7.1%, a decrease in sales value by 8% and a decrease in sales volume by 0.9%. Liquid and solid soaps had a completely opposite direction with a decrease in price by 15.1% – a category that was particularly favored within the pandemic – a decrease in sales volume by 13% and value by 2.1%.

Examining the third largest category of consumer goods after food and personal restraints, home care products showed a 5% de-escalation in January 2022 and 5.2% in February. Looking at individual subcategories of this mega-category of goods, one will notice that home cleaners had the largest decrease in price by 10.3%, decrease in sales volume by 10.6% and marginal increase in sales value by 0.2%. Detergents in the two months had a decrease in the average price by 9.7%, with a decrease in volume by 12.8% and an increase in sales value by 3.1%.