Taliban a year later: how resumption of power put US credibility in jeopardy

A year after the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul, two realities are taking shape, inside and outside Afghanistan: the fundamentalist movement is solidly clinging to power, despite economic difficulties and external pressures, and the United States is putting into practice its new strategy of projection of power over the world.

Afghan government reserves abroad were frozen by the United States and Europe. This, combined with amateurish management of the economy, results in 90% of the population consuming insufficient amounts of food, according to the UN. Prices for basic products such as diesel oil, flour, rice and sugar have increased by 50% this year, according to the World Bank.

Women, prevented from working, are the most sacrificed at present. Girls, banned from studying, will be the most harmed in the future. Just like in the first period when the Taliban ruled, between 1996 and 2001, incredibly courageous teachers welcome girls into their homes to teach them.

The chaotic American withdrawal and the Taliban’s return to power resulted in a loss of credibility and a loss of perception of the strategic and military capability of the United States. The decision to withdraw was unilateral, ignoring the presence of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies. The alliance’s cohesion frayed.

This realization provided an incentive for Russia to invade Ukraine six months later. The invasion, however, worked precisely to reinforce and expand the alliance, with the entry of Sweden and Finland.

The Taliban’s return to power meant the resettlement of their ally Al-Qaeda. It was this partnership that led to the invasion of Afghanistan and the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001, after the attack on the Twin Towers and the Taliban’s refusal to hand over Osama bin Laden to the United States.

A year after the botched withdrawal, a US drone-fired missile attack killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul. With that, the government of Joe Biden sought to prove that it is capable of guaranteeing the security of the Americans with regard to Afghanistan: the containment of terrorism.

The withdrawal from Afghanistan ended a cycle in American defense policy: that of massive military interventions. Since 2008, all American presidents, two Democrats and one Republican, have been elected on the basis of a promise to withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan and not to engage in military adventures any more: Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

That’s the biggest consensus in American society today. Given this premise, the invasion of Ukraine has triggered a proxy war, in which the United States and its allies in Europe, Asia, and the Indo-Pacific participate by providing weapons, intelligence, training, and economic assistance. Just like they and the then-Soviet Union did in the cold war.

On the success of Russia’s containment in Europe depends Taiwan’s future as an independent nation. China awaits the outcome of this proxy war to define its next steps towards annexing the island. Unlike in Afghanistan, where the US has set a date for its withdrawal, and in Ukraine, where it has ruled out direct involvement in the war in advance, the Biden administration maintains the so-called strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan – leaving China in doubt. on whether he would have to face the American Armed Forces or not.

As for terrorism, the US, Europe and Asia have perfected their containment systems to the point that al-Qaida has not been able to carry out any more repercussions. The group’s affiliated franchises focus their efforts on Africa, especially Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique and the Sahel — the intermediate region between the Sahara Desert and the Savannah. The instability brought about by the actions of these cells led to 6 coups d’état in 18 months in West Africa: 3 in Mali and one in Chad, Guinea and Burkina Faso. These blows led France to withdraw its stabilization forces from Mali, while the United States and the United Kingdom intensified their disengagement. The absence of the West, like the Middle East, is being filled by Russia. The Wagner mercenary group, informally linked to the Kremlin, was hired by African dictatorships to contain the jihadists.

These are substantial changes, for such a short period of history.