Tebet would need to grow quickly to threaten 2nd place, says expert

Political scientist and professor at Insper Carlos Melo declared, this Wednesday (8), in an interview with CNN that the pre-candidate Simone Tebet (MDB) would need to grow very quickly in the polls to threaten the second place in the voting intentions, which today is President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

“In addition to the polls showing that something close to 64% or 65% of the votes are already consolidated, both Lula and Bolsonaro have a very large and relevant share of votes that will not change. Something close to 70% of one and the other tends not to change. Simone Tebet would need to grow very quickly to the point of threatening the second place”, says Melo.

“Will you make it? That’s where the useful vote comes in. We need to understand what people call ‘neither nor’, the vote neither Lula nor Bolsonaro. The guy says he’s neither Lula nor Bolsonaro, but the moment he sees that a third name hasn’t been made possible, second-order questions come in”, he continues.

The expert explains that Tebet, Ciro Gomes (PDT) or other third-way candidates will need to show that they are capable of reaching the second round and defeating the top teams.

In the Genial/Quaest survey released this Wednesday, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) appears ahead, with 46% of voting intentions in the first round, followed by President Bolsonaro, with 30%.

Then came Ciro, with 7%; André Janones (Avante) with 2%; and Tebet and Pablo Marçal (Pros), with 1% each.

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