The recent UK heat wave was the “Bake Off Great Britain” nobody wanted – and according to a new analysis, this was caused, at least 10 times more, due to man’s influence on climate change.
The World Weather Attribution (WWA) project, which carried out the analysis, said it was possible that its findings were also underestimated, warning that the tools available to scientists have limitations and are creating a blind spot in assessing what role humans play. in heat waves.
Heat waves are becoming more frequent and longer around the world, and scientists say human-caused climate change plays a role in all of them. The hardest question to answer is, “How much?”.
To determine human influence on extreme heat, scientists use a combination of observations and climate models, or simulations. While the models in their findings are often conservative, the extreme heat observed in Western Europe has increased much more than estimated by climate models.
“While models estimate that greenhouse gas emissions increased temperatures in this heat wave by 2°C, historical climate records indicate that the heat wave would have been 4°C milder in a world not warmed by human activities,” the WWA said. in a press release.
“This suggests that models are underestimating the real impact of human-caused climate change on high temperatures in the UK and other parts of Western Europe. This also means that the results of the analysis are conservative and climate change has likely increased the frequency of the event by more than the factor of 10 estimated by the study.”
Last week, the UK experienced temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius for the first time, reaching 40.3 degrees Celsius in the English village of Coningsby on 19 July. The British government issued its first-ever red-level extreme heat alert for several parts of England, including the capital, London.
As temperatures rose, the country’s infrastructure gave way. Train tracks bent, an airport runway melted, the London fire brigade declared a “major incident” as several fires broke out in what the service said were the busiest days since World War II.
People were advised to work from home, some schools were closed, while hospitals and emergency services were stretched to the limit.
“In Europe and other parts of the world, we are seeing more and more record heat waves, causing extreme temperatures that have become hotter faster than in most climate models,” said Friederike Otto of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change in the United States. Imperial College London, which leads the WWA project.
“It’s a worrying finding that suggests that if carbon emissions are not cut quickly, the consequences of climate change in extreme heat in Europe, which is already extremely deadly, could be even worse than we previously thought.”
Every fraction of a degree of global warming will bring greater and greater impacts from the climate crisis. The world has already warmed by about 1.2 degrees Celsius on average, and there is growing consensus that humans should try to keep warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to avoid tipping points, where some ecosystems the Earth depends on for its life. ecological balance may struggle to recover.
Scientists said the model results also indicated that a heat wave as intense as last week’s in the UK “is still rare in today’s climate”, with a 1% chance of happening every year. However, once again the weather records suggest that the computer simulation results are conservative and similar extreme heat events are likely to occur more frequently as well.
In response to the publication of the new WWA analysis, Dr. Radhika Khosla of the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment praised the scientists for their speed.
“By performing a rapid analysis based on established, peer-reviewed methods, the WWA team is able to get evidence-based results into the public domain, while we can all still remember the main issues caused by last week’s extreme heat. This is the latest in a series of studies showing the same result: climate change makes heat waves more likely and more intense,” Khosla said.
“The level of heat the UK is experiencing right now is dangerous: it puts a strain on our infrastructure, economy, food and education systems and our bodies. As the study points out, many homes in the UK become uninhabitable in extreme heat. Adapting to rising temperatures, building heat resilience with sustainable approaches and protecting people are urgent priorities as unprecedented temperatures become the norm.”
Peter Stott, climate attribution researcher at the UK’s Met Office, said this is not the last time the country will be forced to deal with such extremes.
“Temperatures above 40°C will occur again, possibly in the next few years and most likely in the next few decades,” Stott said. “Only by reducing greenhouse gas emissions can we reduce the risks of such extremes becoming more and more frequent.”
*With information from Angela Dewan and Rachel Ramirez of CNN.
Source: CNN Brasil
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