Tesla production forecast shows jump in Q4 and expansion in 2023

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Tesla plans to ramp up production of its Model Y and Model 3 electric vehicles in the fourth quarter and extend that growth into 2023 as factories in Austin and Berlin gain traction, according to internal plans seen by Reuters.

Tesla’s production forecast, if achieved, will put the manufacturer on track to meet Elon Musk’s production target next quarter and bring it closer to the scale of German luxury automaker BMW by the end of 2023.

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Musk and Tesla have a history of aiming for goals the company hasn’t always met.

In April, Musk had said that Tesla could achieve 60% growth in deliveries. In July, the company reduced the target to 50% for this year.

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Its forecast, which covers the next four consecutive quarters, sets an ambitious goal of producing nearly 495,000 Model Ys and Model 3s in the fourth quarter of this year. These two models account for about 95% of Tesla’s output.

Production plans could see Tesla exceed projected growth in the global auto market by nearly 10 times by 2023.

Reuters confirmed the global production target for the vehicles with two people familiar with the projections.

Tesla did not immediately respond with a comment.

Tesla is expected to announce third-quarter deliveries and production this Saturday.

This is expected to show that the automaker has recovered sharply from the downturn in the previous quarter, when production in Shanghai was hit by Covid-19 control measures.

Piper Sandler projects that Tesla will deliver 354,000 vehicles in the third quarter.

Citi expects deliveries of 369,800 vehicles.

Troy Teslike, an analyst who tracks production and delivery data, projects sales of 343,779 Model Y compact crossovers and Model 3 sedans.

If it meets or exceeds those analyst forecasts and then hits the forecast seen by Reuters for the fourth quarter, Tesla will have sales of around 1.4 million vehicles in 2022.

Its forecasted production of 1.59 million Model Ys and Model 3s in the first nine months of next year could see it end 2023 with sales of more than 2.1 million electric vehicles.

Source: CNN Brasil

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