The 13th assessment for the economy is developing positively

By Tasos Dasopoulos

Positively, in every respect, the 13th evaluation has started in a regime of enhanced supervision with the representatives of the institutions admitting that at the end of 2022 Greece will have managed to enter a stable growth trajectory.

Specifically, from the data presented by the staff of YPOIK, the representatives of the institutions admitted that Greece had covered most of the losses of 2020, at the end of 2021. Specifically, they stressed that the official forecast for growth of 6.9% included in the budget is clearly conservative since despite the relative losses caused to GDP by the high inflation of the 4th quarter, growth for 2021 will be in the region of 8%.

At the same time, of course, they were informed about the prospects of 2022. Subject to the loss that may occur from the extension of the pandemic due to the “Omicron” mutation and high inflation, they considered that growth in 2022 will be high in the region. 5%.

Higher growth rates will result in a slightly better result for the deficit. For the same reason and due to proper management and debt as a percentage of GDP, after its peak at 206.3% returns to a steady course of de-escalation in 2021, which will continue in 2022.

In the next 11 days, the technical levels of the institutions will “scan” the issues that continue to be pending, from the beginning of the enhanced supervision.

Today, teleconferences are underway with officials from the Ministry of Labor on arrears of pensions, which are an important part of public arrears. Despite the progress in the granting of the old pensions, the foreign technocrats are informed about a new accumulation of pension applications, but also about the improvement that is being attempted in the management mechanism.

At the same time, there will be a discussion with the Ministry of Finance about overdue debts to individuals. YPOIK will inform about the clarification of the issue of clawback with legislation, but also about the mechanisms that will prevent the accumulation of new debts.

The next big issue will be the settlement of red loans and the continuation of the effort to privatize the financial sector. The circle of contacts that the technical ranks will have includes the Bank of Greece, the commercial banks, the Ministry of Justice (for the 30,000 applications pending under the old Katselis law) and of course the Ministry of Finance for the new legal framework for the HFSF, in view of the gradual disinvestment of the Fund in commercial banks.

The data they will collect and the conclusions they have reached are the subject of the final round of the 13th evaluation that will take place with the heads of the teams of the institutions, on the 25th of the month.

The letter of departure

In the meantime, on Monday, as the Minister of Finance, Mr. Christos Staikouras, stated yesterday, the Ministry of Finance sent the last letter to Brussels for a six-month extension of the enhanced supervision regime. These letters have so far been more formal as they also led to the formal decisions for six-month extensions of the enhanced supervision regime by the European Commission. This is given that from the beginning it was agreed that the enhanced supervision should be maintained for four years. The current letter, gives the prospect of the economy coming out of tight supervision four years and 2 months after joining this regime, in June 2018. The end of enhanced supervision is set for August 20, a date which coincides with the official expiry of the third memorandum. Now, all that needs to be agreed is the payment of the last two installments of the bond profits (ANFA’s, SNP ”s). That is, whether we will have a double installment for June or whether the last installment will be given after the exit from the enhanced supervision regime.