The 5 “fronts” that shake Putin’s power after 24 years of omnipotence

THE Vladimir Putin he may have been its undisputed leader for 24 consecutive years of Russiaearned the nickname “tsar” in the West, but now he has to face 5 “fronts” that shake his power.

According to Agence France-Presse, Wagner’s rebellion has changed the situation inside his country, as it appeared that the people do not support all his actions.

At the same time, the discomfort of the Russian oligarchy, which sees its money dwindling due to the war in Ukraine, was felt.

Here are the 5 “open accounts” of the Russian president, as listed by AFP:

Prigozhin is alive

In less than 24 hours, on June 23 and 24, Prigozhin, in an unimpeded advance into Russian territory, came within a few hundred kilometers of Moscow with his armed fighters, capturing a Russian army headquarters and other military installations.

Why did he decide to halt his advance and reach an agreement with Putin, brokered by the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko? This still remains a mystery.

But in exile in Belarus, Prigozhin remains unpredictable. Wagner, in addition to her mercenaries, led numerous media outlets and trolls who were omnipresent in the information war.

Hence the need to shut up. Russian authorities on Friday blocked media linked to media company Patriot Media, which is “in the process of being dissolved,” according to Maxim Odiné of the Institute for Strategic Research of the Military Academy (IRSEM) in Paris. “Prigozin will be deprived of the formidable strike force of the media,” he told AFP.

However, “it’s hard to imagine he will remain silent for much longer,” notes Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general.

The regime is vulnerable

For a few hours Prigozhin made Putin tremble. He who imprisons his critics and punishes the slightest dissenting voice to the Russian invasion, let the man who defied him go.

“The idea that the regime no longer has infallibility may grow in the minds of some of the elites. If Prigozhin could and is doing it, why not someone else?”, reports Odiné.

The mutiny also exposed fissures within the ranks of the security forces. “Prygozhin ignored the Russian army, the Russian police and the Russian security services (FSB) without any effort by these units to stop him,” notes Kirill Chamiev of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

“This reveals the fragility of the Russian political system,” he adds.

Inactivity is the worst enemy

Putin cannot stand idly by, with many reporting for several months that he is becoming paranoid and increasingly isolated.

“I don’t expect a Stalin-style purge,” predicts Tatyana Stanovaya, founder of consulting firm R. Politik. “His specter ranks people as heroes, traitors (…) and lost souls who can be forgiven if they repent. Arrests are likely to be made in this context.”

But Putin’s future “will not be settled in days or weeks”, says former Australian ambassador to Moscow, Peter Tess. “He presides over a system where mistrust and deceit reign and where self-interest triumphs.”

As for the paramilitary boss, if he “drinks tea, he might as well change his favorite drink,” he quips, referring to the poisonings of many Kremlin opponents.

Kirylo Budanov, head of secret intelligence at the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, even claims that the FSB was ordered to assassinate him.

War and obsessions

Prigozhin carried the voice of those decrying the utter failure of the invasion of Ukraine as well as the dangerous strategies of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

“Many soldiers do not know why they are fighting or why they are dying. Prigozhin spoke for them,” Liana Fix and Michael Kimage write on the Foreign Affairs website. “It brought to light the deplorable condition (of the Russian army) at the front.”

The Russian leader “looks weak”, insists Laurence Friedman of King’s College.

He is “obsessed with a war he cannot win, on which he has wasted great resources” and has shown “procrastination when he has had to make difficult decisions.”

Multiple open fronts

After 16 months of war, Putin sees new fronts opening, political this time. Russian elites divided over the conduct of the war are now potentially poised to prepare for the post-Putin era, even if none of them openly supported Prigozhin.

“Other countries have stock markets that go up and down. The Kremlin has an internal stock market, which shows the rise and fall of the political credit of the powerful,’ Liana Fix and Michael Kimmaz outline. Putin will have to ensure “a return to normality, but also the humiliation he just suffered and the revenge he is likely to exact.”

And abroad his weakness is exploited. The war is having a “catastrophic” effect on Putin, CIA Director William Burns said Saturday.

“Resentment about the war will continue to gnaw at the Russian leadership,” he said, speaking of a once-in-a-generation opportunity to recruit spies that the CIA is not letting go.