The aie surprises with an oil production of Saudi Arabia significantly higher – Commerzbank

The International Energy Agency has slightly reduced its forecasts for oil demand. Wait for an increase of 700,000 barrels per day for this year and the next. This is the smallest increase since the fall in 2020 during the Coronavirus pandemic. However, the greatest attention focused on the AIE report on an abrupt increase in the production of oil of Saudi Arabia in June 700,000 barrels per day to 9.8 million barrels per day. This placed production in an amazing 430,000 barrels per day above the agreed level, says CommerzBank raw material analyst Carsten Fritsch.

Saudi production shoots, the OPEC+ unit at risk

“Esto significa que Arabia Saudita ya había producido más en junio de lo que se permitiría después de los significativos aumentos de producción en julio y agosto. La alta cifra de producción también fue una sorpresa porque las encuestas de producción realizadas por Bloomberg y Reuters habían mostrado cifras significativamente más bajas dentro del volumen acordado de 9,37 millones de barriles por día. La AIE atribuye la cifra significativamente más alta a un aumento en las exportaciones netas of 500,000 barrels per day and the processing of crude oil of 300,000 barrels per day. “

“It is also remarkable that Saudi Arabia has asked OPEC to report lower production figures for June in order to meet the production objective. This was informed by Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter. Therefore, the lowest production figures in the OPEC monthly report do not necessarily indicate lower production volumes.

“The question now is whether this figure will be an isolated case or, as in the case of the United Arab Emirates, a permanent deviation in the volume of production compared to other data suppliers. A significant and permanent deviation of Saudi Arabia of its production objective would endanger the cohesion of OPEP+, because other countries with free production capacity could then increase its production without consultation.”