Before the pandemic broke out, Javier Gándara had his office in the seat x of the flight x of Easyjet that was his turn that day. There were several per week. Today his office is a Zoom screen and he misses all those flights that he missed before. He is the general director in Spain of the Easyjet company and president of ALA, the Air Lines Association, which groups 80 airlines operating in Spain.
This has been one of the sectors hardest hit by the crisis, as it is an industry with very high costs and the pandemic has drastically limited mobility. The new strains of the virus and the continuous restrictions complicate a recovery that was expected for Easter but which, says the manager, will probably be later.
The worst forecasts for 2020 have been confirmed
There has been a drop of more than 72% in air traffic in Spain. We have returned to the level of the 90s, we have gone back 30 years. In confinement, no flights were flown, except for goods or repatriation, and in June it seemed that the activity was reactivated, but in August it was truncated, especially due to the decisions of the United Kingdom. The recovery we do not know when it will be, we thought it would be at Easter, but it will be complicated, because now it does not seem that in two months things will change, but from May or June, in summer, we hope that this recovery, although slow, be constant. The foundations must be laid to return to travel safely.
What are those foundations to regain the confidence of the traveler?
Make the tests compulsory in a systematic round-trip manner, that they are affordable and fast and that they are done in a harmonized way. That restrictions be removed, because it makes no sense to ask for a test and force a quarantine. If this is complemented with vaccines, it will get people to travel again, with zero risk, no, because that does not exist, but it will be mitigated.
Will the pre-pandemic traffic recovery expected for 2024 be later than expected?
Now we are scheduling flights from one month to the next and we are modifying it on the fly, so it is difficult to make predictions. Eurocontrol, in its most optimistic scenario, saw a faster vaccination scenario, but now predicts that in 2021 50% of the flights that were operated before the pandemic will fly in Europe. With the current situation, it is difficult to think of a recovery for Easter, it will be more towards summer. Domestic traffic will recover first and long-haul traffic will be slower.
If supply falls, what impact will this have on prices and routes?
We have an unprecedented drop in demand and supply has to adapt. The companies are trying to maintain as many routes as possible but with less frequency of flights. Even so, in Europe in December 6,000 routes were lost that were used before and were temporarily stopped. In prices, we have stimulated the little demand that had been lowering prices and that will continue. Now they are trying to encourage people to book in the summer, if the conditions are met. But in the medium-long term we believe that flying will be as cheap as it was before.
Barajas has been criticized as a strainer of contagions …
Since May there have been just over 4,000 imported cases, so that doesn’t appear to have been the problem, if we look at the data.
Many countries have rescued their most emblematic airlines. Do you think that this aid should be extended to the entire sector?
The ideal would have been a pan-European aid scheme where everyone, depending on the traffic, would have had access to this aid. This has not been the case and each country has established its own schemes, the majority through credit. These grants came with restrictions, because with that money you cannot buy an airline, for example. Therefore, the bottom line is that we have ensured the airlines’ survival without distorting the competitive environment. If the survival of the companies is not guaranteed, it will be difficult for tourism to recover. In Spain 85 %% of tourists arrive by air. We are very much at it.
What kind of help are they asking for?
In Spain there have been generic aid (ICO, ERTE …), but direct aid would be needed, a specific plan for the tourism sector in general. Aid that can be for travelers, vouchers to reactivate demand as in Italy, and that people have money to spend on trips, aid to compensate Aena to lower airport charges …
Do you have forecast of job losses?
In December, 82% of the employees in the sector who were in confinement in ERTE continue in this situation. This mechanism has made it possible to maintain this structure at this time of transition while waiting for demand to recover.
Will there be mergers or bankruptcies?
Now, in the short term, except for the operations that had already been announced, such as Iberia and Air Europa, it is not very predictable, because the companies have little liquidity and the condition for bailouts is that other airlines are not bought. In the long term, it cannot be ruled out that some company disappears and that there is this type of operation, a greater concentration.
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