The Aud/USD falls to new July minimums waiting for the decision of the US Federal Reserve.

• Australian inflation increased at a slower pace in the second quarter of the year.
• The United States optimistic data promoted the dollar’s demand before the imminent Fed meeting.
• The AUD/USD established a new minimum of July at 0.6449 in the middle of the general fortress of the US dollar.

The Australian dollar (AUD) quotes in new July minimal in front of its American rival, around 0.6450. The US dollar (USD) attracted a strong purchase interest after the publication of optimistic macroeconomic figures, before the Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement (FED).

Earlier on the day, Australia reported that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.7% intertrmetral in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025, decreasing from 0.9% recorded in Q1, also below the anticipated 0.8%. In addition, the preferred inflation indicator of the Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA) increased less than expected in the same period. The average RBA cutting RBA rose 0.6% and 2.7% in quarterly and annual terms, respectively. The markets were waiting for an increase of 0.7% intertramestral and 2.7% year -on -year.

Finally, the monthly CPC rose 1.9% year -on -year in June, lowering 2.1% registered in May. The aud/usd torque fell with the news and perforated the level of 0.6500.

The United States data (USA) came next. The country reported that the private sector added 104K new jobs in July, according to ADP’s employment change report, exceeding 78K expectations. In addition, the preliminary estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Q2 showed that the economy expanded at an annual rate of 3% in the second quarter, much better than the advanced 2.4% or -0.5% of Q1. Finally, the Personal Consumer Price Index (PCE) increased 2.5% in the same quarter, lowering 3.5% registered in the three months to March.

What comes next is the Fed. It is widely anticipated that the Central Bank maintains interest rates without changes. President Jerome Powell will explain the decision at a press conference that will follow the announcement. Market participants anticipate questions about when the Central Bank will make a rate cut, given the solid macroeconomic data.

In addition, the speculative interest will be attentive to the comments of US President Donald Trump, since he would not handle the anticipated decision of Fed. Trump has already requested a rate cut, publishing in Truth Social:

GDP of 2T fair published: 3%, much better than expected! “Too late” now you must lower the rate. Without inflation! Let people buy and refine their houses!

Technical perspective: challenging the minimum of July

The Aud/USD presses the 0.6450 area, with additional landslides on the horizon. The pair accumulates five consecutive days of falls and has been most of the week below the simple mobile average (SMA) of 20 days, while the technical indicators are directed firmly to the south within negative levels, in line with additional falls ahead.

The immediate support level is the minimum of June 24 at 0.6437, followed by the 0.6400 mark. The resistance is around 0.6470, followed by the price zone of 0.6500.