The Aud/USD points to 0.6500 while the US dollar weakens, the decision of the RBA in the focus

• The AUD/USD quotes about 0.6455, rising 0.80% in the day in the midst of the general weakness of the US dollar.
• Moody’s’s credit qualification cuts weighs on the US dollar.
• The RBA is expected to cut the rates at 25 basic points on Tuesday, with the market approach to orientation in resilient domestic data.

The Australian dollar (AUD) extends its rebound against the US dollar (USD) on Monday, with the aud/USD rising to 0.6455, cutting recent losses as the feeling turns against the dollar. The movement occurs after the Moody’s agency reduced the long -term sovereign rating of the US of “AAA” A “AA1”, citing growing fiscal challenges and a debt load of 36 billion dollars. Although the agency assigned a “stable” perspective, the reduction caused a new weakness in the US dollar, pushing the US dollar index (DXY) near the key brand of 100.00.

Meanwhile, the attention focuses on the policy decision of the Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA) on Tuesday. There is a strong consensus in the financial markets and among the main banks that the RBA will reduce the official cash (OCR) rate by 25 basic points, from 4.10% to 3.85%. Anz analysts, Commonwealth Bank and Westpac support this vision. However, the National Australia Bank (NAB) has adopted a more aggressive stance, predicting a cutting of 50 basic points. Some economists have even raised the possibility of a reduction of 35 basic points to realize the rate with a standard level of a quarterfinal. A Reuters survey shows an almost unanimous prognosis for a 25 basic points cut.

However, the optimistic data of the Australian labor market and the improvement of commercial feeling between the US and China have moderated the expectations of an aggressive relaxation cycle.

Technical Analysis: The AUD/USD points to a break above the key resistance

From a technical point of view, the AUD/USD approaches the psychological resistance zone of 0.6500, which has limited the rise in multiple occasions in May. A daily closure above this barrier would open the door to more profits towards 0.6600, a level not seen since November.

The pair remains supported by the 21 -day exponential mobile average (EMA) at 0.6402, reinforcing the short -term bullish bias. The Relative Force Index (RSI) in 56.69 shows a moderate ascending impulse, while the indicator of convergence/divergence of mobile socks (MACD) continues to float in positive territory, although the impulse is flattening.

In the lower part, a key support is observed in 0.6400, marked by the 21 -day EMA, followed by a stronger floor at 0.6350. Short -term bias remains cautiously bullish while the torque is maintained above the 0.6400 support zone.