- The Aud/USD torque is negotiating around 0.6400, lowering 0.65% in the day.
- The US dollar is seeing mixed movements while markets react to the uncertainty of commercial policy and labor data.
- Investors expect the US GDP and NFP data this week to obtain clues about the Federal Reserve Policy Directorate.
- Market attention moves towards employment offers in the US and the possibility of a rate cut in June.
The aud/USD is struggling near the 0.6400 level while the uncertainty of commercial policy continues to impact the feeling. Investors are waiting for critical data this week, including non -agricultural payroll (NFP) and US GDP figures, which could influence the federal reserve position (FED) on interest rates. The commercial war and concerns about inflation remain key factors that promote market uncertainty.
Daily summary of market movements: US data and tariffs weigh on feeling
- The Aud/USD torque slides after proven resistance about 0.6450, since uncertainty about US commercial policy impacts the feeling of risk.
- The comments of the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, about delays in commercial policy increased the restlessness in the market.
- President Trump’s plans to reduce tariffs on car imports failed to cause a significant movement in the market.
- The Jolts report showed a decrease in labor demand, with job offers falling to 7.19 million, below expectations.
- The consumer’s confidence in the US continued to fall, with the Board conference index reaching its lowest level since 2020.
- The expectations of a rate cut by the Fed in June increase behind the weakest work and trust data.
- The US dollar index (DXY) remains about 99.16, rising slightly in the day, in the midst of caution optimism for a commercial thaw.
- The mood on the market is still cautiously positive, since US actions show slight profits despite uncertainties related to tariffs.
- The operators are focused on the next US GDP report, with the market waiting for weak growth due to commercial friction.
- In Australia, IPC data for the first quarter will be published this week, with expectations of cooling inflation.
- The US commercial data, including the trade balance of goods, remain the focus amid commercial negotiations with China and other partners.
- President Trump’s tariff policies continue to weigh on the US dollar while the global commercial scene remains uncertain.
Technical Analysis: AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.6450, intact bullish trend
The Aud/USD torque is negotiating around 0.6400, lowering 0.65% in the day. The price action is maintained within a range between 0.6376 and 0.6450. The Relative Force Index (RSI) is neutral in 55.98, while the Mobile Media (MACD) divergence indicator continues to generate a purchase signal. However, the short -term impulse is bassist, with the impulse of 10 days at 0.0043. The product channel index (CCI) is neutral at 69.64. The short -term mobile socks are bullish, with the EMA of 10 days at 0.6373 and the 100 -day SMA at 0.6282, supporting the general upward perspective. The resistance is found in 0.6450, and the 200 -day SMA at 0.6464 remains a key obstacle. Support levels are identified in 0.6373, 0.6336 and 0.6336, with the stop probably continuing to test the resistance.
Faqs Australian dollar
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (Aud) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a country rich in resources, another key factor is the price of its greatest export, iron mineral. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and commercial balance. The feeling of the market, that is, if investors are committed to more risky assets (Risk-on) or seek safe shelters (Risk-Off), it is also a factor, being the positive risk-on for the AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) influences the Australian dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of the interest rates of the economy as a whole. The main objective of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2% -3% by adjusting the interest rates or the low. Relatively high interest rates compared to other large central banks support the AU, and the opposite for the relatively low. The RBA can also use relaxation and quantitative hardening to influence credit conditions, being the first refusal for the AU and the second positive for the AUD.
China is Australia’s largest commercial partner, so the health of the Chinese economy greatly influences the value of the Australian dollar (Aud). When the Chinese economy goes well, it buys more raw materials, goods and services in Australia, which increases the demand of the AU and makes its value upload. The opposite occurs when the Chinese economy does not grow as fast as expected. Therefore, positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data usually have a direct impact on the Australian dollar.
Iron mineral is the largest export in Australia, with 118,000 million dollars a year according to data from 2021, China being its main destination. The price of iron ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian dollar. Usually, if the price of iron ore rises, the Aud also does, since the aggregate demand of the currency increases. The opposite occurs when the price of low iron ore. The highest prices of the iron mineral also tend to lead to a greater probability of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for the AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country earns with its exports and what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces highly requested exports, its currency will gain value exclusively for the excess demand created by foreign buyers who wish to acquire their exports to what you spend on buying imports. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens the AU, with the opposite effect if the commercial balance is negative.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
