- The Australian dollar receives support from the cautious tone around the RBA policy perspective.
- The governor of the RBA, Bullock, declared that high unit labor costs and weak productivity could boost inflation above the current forecasts.
- President Trump issued a new round of tariff demand letters, reviving concerns about a global commercial war.
The Australian dollar (AUD) continues its winning streak for third consecutive session on Thursday. The Aud/USD torque gained ground after the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) decided surprisingly to maintain the official cash (OCR) rate at 3.85% earlier this week.
The governor of the RBA, Michele Bullock, declared that the risks of inflation persist, driven by the high unit labor costs and the weak productivity, which could push inflation above the forecasts. In addition, the Vice Governor of the RBA, Andrew Hauser, mentioned that the global economy faces uncertainty. Hauser also said that the effects of tariffs on the global economy are deep and probably affect growth.
However, the AU could face challenges after the Reuters survey, which predicts that the Australian Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate at 25 basic points to 3.60% in August. The four main banks of Australia, Anz, CBA, NAB and Westpac, also support the rate cut.
The Australian dollar continues to progress while the US dollar weakens for the uncertainty of tariffs
- The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar (USD) compared to six main currencies, extends its losses per second consecutive session and is quoted around 97.30 at the time of writing. Traders are likely to observe weekly unemployment subsidy applications in the US. Later on Thursday.
- US President Donald Trump presented a new wave of tariff demand letters on Wednesday, generating concerns about a renewed global commercial war. The avalanche of letters and threats of additional tariffs marked the last turn on a fast movement commercial agenda that has fed market volatility.
- The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the June 17-18 meeting, published on Wednesday, indicated that those responsible for the policy largely maintained a waiting position regarding future decisions about interest rates.
- President Trump said Tuesday that he will announce a 50% tariff on imported copper and indicated that higher sector levies are coming. Trump also said that he would soon announce tariffs “at a very, very high rate, like 200%,” about pharmaceutical imports.
- The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, said that the United States has already received around 100,000 million dollars in tariff revenues this year and could see that this total shoots at 300,000 million dollars by the end of 2025, promoted by commercial measures to increased President Donald Trump.
- The White House announced late Monday that President Donald Trump has signed an executive order that delays the implementation of new tariffs from July to August 1, according to Bloomberg. Trump renewed his threat of a 25% tax on imports from Japan and South Korea and shared a lot of other letters to world leaders warning about taxes as of August 1. Trump also imposed 25%rates to Malaysia, Kazakhstan and Tunisia, while South Africa would see a 30%tariff, and Laos and Burma would face a 40%tax. Other nations affected by taxes included Indonesia with a 32%rate, Bangladés with 35%, and Thailand and Cambodia with 36%rights.
- Trump published on social networks on Monday that “any country that aligns with BRICS anti -American policies, an additional 10%tariff will be charged. There will be no exceptions to this policy.”
- The China consumer price index rose 0.1% year -on -year in June after falling 0.1% in May. The market consensus was 0% in the informed period. Meanwhile, the monthly IPC decreased 0.1% compared to the expected reading of 0%. In addition, the production price index (IPP) fell 3.6% year -on -year in June, after a 3.3% drop in May. The data were lower than the 3.2%market consensus. Any change in the Chinese economy could impact the AU, since China and Australia are nearby commercial partners.
- Financial Times reported that China is increasingly redirecting its exports through Southeast Asia to avoid tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. In May, direct shipments from China to the US fell 43%, while China’s total exports increased 4.8%. This change was marked by a 15% increase in exports to Southeast Asia and a 12% increase towards the European Union (EU). However, the US trade agreement with Vietnam now includes a 40% tariff on traffic goods to stop such practices.
- The Australian treasurer, Jim Chalmers, said that the decision of the Bank of the Australian Reserve of maintaining the rates was not even the result that millions of Australians expected or what the markets anticipated. Chalmers added that the Central Bank has indicated a clear direction on inflation and interest rates in the future.
The Australian dollar maintains profits about 0.6550 after breaking over the nine -day em.
The aud/USD torque is quoted around 0.6540 on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily graphic indicated a persistent bullish feeling, since the torque is maintained within the ascending channel pattern. The 14 -day relative force (RSI) index is positioned above 50, strengthening the bullish bias. In addition, the pair has moved slightly above the nine -day exponential (EMA) mobile average, indicating that the impulse of the short -term price is being strengthened.
The Aud/USD torque could find its main barrier at a maximum of eight months of 0.6590, which was reached on July 1. A rupture above this level could strengthen the bullish bias and open the doors so that the torque explores the region around the upper limit of the ascending channel about 0.6680.
On the negative side, the aud/USD torque could test its initial support in the nine -day EMA of 0.6538. A successful breakdown below this level would weaken the feeling of the market and exert down pressure over the torque to test the lower limit of the upward channel around 0.6510, followed by the EMA of 50 days at 0.6478.
AUD/USD: Daily graphic
Australian dollar Price today
The lower table shows the percentage of change of the Australian dollar (AUD) compared to the main currencies today. Australian dollar was the strongest currency against the US dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.16% | -0.16% | -0.35% | -0.05% | -0.16% | -0.12% | -0.18% | |
| EUR | 0.16% | -0.01% | -0.21% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.05% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.16% | 0.00% | -0.22% | 0.14% | 0.04% | 0.07% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.35% | 0.21% | 0.22% | 0.31% | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | -0.13% | -0.14% | -0.31% | -0.08% | -0.09% | -0.16% | |
| Aud | 0.16% | -0.03% | -0.04% | -0.20% | 0.08% | -0.01% | -0.06% | |
| NZD | 0.12% | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.30% | 0.09% | 0.00% | -0.08% | |
| CHF | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.02% | -0.07% | 0.16% | 0.06% | 0.08% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the Aud (base)/USD (quotation).
Australian dollar – frequent questions
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (Aud) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a country rich in resources, another key factor is the price of its greatest export, iron mineral. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and commercial balance. The feeling of the market, that is, if investors are committed to more risky assets (Risk-on) or seek safe shelters (Risk-Off), it is also a factor, being the positive risk-on for the AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) influences the Australian dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of the interest rates of the economy as a whole. The main objective of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2% -3% by adjusting the interest rates or the low. Relatively high interest rates compared to other large central banks support the AU, and the opposite for the relatively low. The RBA can also use relaxation and quantitative hardening to influence credit conditions, being the first refusal for the AU and the second positive for the AUD.
China is Australia’s largest commercial partner, so the health of the Chinese economy greatly influences the value of the Australian dollar (Aud). When the Chinese economy goes well, it buys more raw materials, goods and services in Australia, which increases the demand of the AU and makes its value upload. The opposite occurs when the Chinese economy does not grow as fast as expected. Therefore, positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data usually have a direct impact on the Australian dollar.
Iron mineral is the largest export in Australia, with 118,000 million dollars a year according to data from 2021, China being its main destination. The price of iron ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian dollar. Usually, if the price of iron ore rises, the Aud also does, since the aggregate demand of the currency increases. The opposite occurs when the price of low iron ore. The highest prices of the iron mineral also tend to lead to a greater probability of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for the AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country earns with its exports and what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces highly requested exports, its currency will gain value exclusively for the excess demand created by foreign buyers who wish to acquire their exports to what you spend on buying imports. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the commercial balance is negative.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
