- The Australian dollar falls in the midst of renewed concerns about US tariffs.
- Anz’s employment ads in Australia increased 1.8% in June after a 1.2% drop in May.
- The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, said that US Tariffs could be reversed at April 2 levels on August 1.
The Australian dollar (AUD) loses ground against the US dollar (USD) on Monday, continuing its loss streak per third consecutive session. The Aud/USD torque depreciates due to renewed concerns about tariffs, since US President Donald Trump could send 12 or 15 letters on tariffs later a day, with the expectation that trade agreements or letters with most nations are made for July 9.
Anz’s employment ads increased 1.8% in June after a 1.2% drop in May. The data has the number of employment ads in the main metropolitan newspapers and in the Internet sites in Australia.
Financial Times reported that China is increasingly redirecting its exports through Southeast Asia in an effort to avoid tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The data indicates that direct shipments from China to the US fell 43% in May, even when China’s total exports increased 4.8%. This change was marked by a 15% increase in exports to Southeast Asia and a 12% increase towards the European Union (EU). However, the US trade agreement with Vietnam now includes a 40% tariff on traffic goods to stop such practices. Any change in the Chinese economy could impact the AU, since China and Australia are nearby commercial partners.
The operators will focus on the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA) on Tuesday. The latest Reuters survey indicated that 31 of 37 economists expect the RBA to make a 25 basic points cut in July. The medium forecast now sees the cash rate falling to 3.10% by the end of 2025, from 3.35% in the May survey.
The Australian dollar falls due to renewed concerns about US tariffs.
- The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar compared to six main currencies, is raising up to 97.00 at the time of writing.
- The secretary of the US Treasury, Scott Besent, said on Sunday that President Donald Trump will send letters to some commercial partners, warning that tariffs could be reversed at levels on April 2 on August 1 if not progressing in a commercial agreement. He clarified that on August 1 it is not another new deadline for tariffs, but suggested that it could still give more time to commercial partners to renegotiate tariff rates.
- The Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, confirmed that the new tariffs will take effect on August 1. Lutnick added that Trump is finishing specific rates and agreements and could send 12 or 15 tariff letters on Monday. He also indicated that trade agreements or letters with most nations will be held for July 9.
- On Thursday, Trump told reporters that “it will begin sending letters on commercial tariffs starting Friday.” He added that he would send letters to 10 countries at the same time, establishing tariff rates from 20% to 30%, Reuters reported.
- The fiscal bill “one, great, beautiful” of President Trump went through the House of Representatives and was sent to him for his signature. The legislation includes significant tax cuts designed to stimulate economic growth. Trump celebrated the approval of the bill in Truth Social, calling him a “historical victory for US workers, families and companies.”
- Non -agricultural payrolls of the US indicated that the US workforce grew by 147,000 jobs, exceeding 110,000 anticipated in June. In addition, the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% from 4.2%. Meanwhile, the weekly applications of unemployment subsidy fell to 233,000, from 237,000, reflecting an American resilient labor market.
- The change of US employment from the US fell for the first time in more than two years in June. Private sector payrolls decreased by 33,000 in June after an increase reviewed down 29,000 in May. This figure was below the market consensus of 95,000.
- China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Friday that “China and the US are intensifying efforts to implement the results of the London framework.” USA has notified China on the cancellation of restrictive measures against Chinese exports. China is reviewing requests for export licenses for controlled articles under laws and regulations.
- The Caixin Services PMI of China fell to 50.6 in June from 51.1 in May, failing in the 51.0 market forecast. The purchasing managers index (PMI) of Caixin Manufacturing of China improved 50.4 in June from 48.3 in May, according to the latest data published on Tuesday. Reading exceeded 49.0 market forecast.
- Australia’s commercial surplus was reduced to 2,238m month by month in May, compared to 5,091M expected and 4,859m (reviewed from 5,431m) in April. Meanwhile, exports fell 2.7% month to month from -1.7% (reviewed from -2.4%) above. Imports increased 3.8% month by month, compared to the previous increase of 1.6% (reviewed from 1.1%).
The Australian dollar breaks below the nine -day Ema about 0.6550
The aud/USD is quoting around 0.6530 on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily graphic indicated a persistent bullish bias, since the torque is maintained within the ascending channel pattern. The 14 -day relative force (RSI) index is positioned slightly above level 50, suggesting that the upward feeling prevails. However, the torque has moved below the nine -day exponential (EMA) mobile average, which suggests that the impulse of the short -term price is weakening.
The Aud/USD torque could try the main barrier in the nine -day EMA of 0.6546. A rupture above this level could improve the boost of the price and support the torque to approach to the maximum of eight months of 0.6590, registered on July 1. Additional advances would support the torque to explore the region around the upper limit of the upward channel around 0.6670.
Down, the AUD/USD torque could navigate the area around the lower limit of the upward channel about 0.6500, followed by the 50 -day EMA at 0.6472.
AUD/USD: Daily graphic
Australian dollar Price today
The lower table shows the percentage of change of the Australian dollar (AUD) compared to the main currencies today. Australian dollar was the weakest currency against the Swiss Franco.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.08% | 0.16% | 0.27% | 0.14% | 0.48% | 0.45% | 0.08% | |
| EUR | -0.08% | 0.08% | -0.05% | 0.02% | 0.44% | 0.35% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.16% | -0.08% | -0.16% | -0.04% | 0.37% | 0.28% | -0.23% | |
| JPY | -0.27% | 0.05% | 0.16% | 0.10% | 0.42% | 0.40% | -0.14% | |
| CAD | -0.14% | -0.02% | 0.04% | -0.10% | 0.36% | 0.33% | -0.19% | |
| Aud | -0.48% | -0.44% | -0.37% | -0.42% | -0.36% | 0.01% | -0.59% | |
| NZD | -0.45% | -0.35% | -0.28% | -0.40% | -0.33% | -0.01% | -0.51% | |
| CHF | -0.08% | 0.03% | 0.23% | 0.14% | 0.19% | 0.59% | 0.51% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the Aud (base)/USD (quotation).
Australian dollar – frequent questions
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (Aud) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a country rich in resources, another key factor is the price of its greatest export, iron mineral. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and commercial balance. The feeling of the market, that is, if investors are committed to more risky assets (Risk-on) or seek safe shelters (Risk-Off), it is also a factor, being the positive risk-on for the AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) influences the Australian dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of the interest rates of the economy as a whole. The main objective of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2% -3% by adjusting the interest rates or the low. Relatively high interest rates compared to other large central banks support the AU, and the opposite for the relatively low. The RBA can also use relaxation and quantitative hardening to influence credit conditions, being the first refusal for the AU and the second positive for the AUD.
China is Australia’s largest commercial partner, so the health of the Chinese economy greatly influences the value of the Australian dollar (Aud). When the Chinese economy goes well, it buys more raw materials, goods and services in Australia, which increases the demand of the AU and makes its value upload. The opposite occurs when the Chinese economy does not grow as fast as expected. Therefore, positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data usually have a direct impact on the Australian dollar.
Iron mineral is the largest export in Australia, with 118,000 million dollars a year according to data from 2021, China being its main destination. The price of iron ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian dollar. Usually, if the price of iron ore rises, the Aud also does, since the aggregate demand of the currency increases. The opposite occurs when the price of low iron ore. The highest prices of the iron mineral also tend to lead to a greater probability of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for the AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country earns with its exports and what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces highly requested exports, its currency will gain value exclusively for the excess demand created by foreign buyers who wish to acquire their exports to what you spend on buying imports. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the commercial balance is negative.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
